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Last chance to back the EPL’s biggest xG underperformers this weekend

Last chance to back the EPL’s biggest xG underperformers this weekend

Two relegated sides will face off at Turf Moor on Sunday. Could Yerson Mosquera finally score his first goal of the season for Wolves?

Anytime Goalscorer MarketOdds
Sepp van den Berg (vs Liverpool)11.0
Yerson Mosquera (vs Burnley)9.00
Sandro Tonali (vs Fulham)6.50

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Van den Berg provides a constant attacking thre

Sepp van den Berg has been one of the most unfortunate players in the Premier League in front of goal. The Dutch defender ranks in the 75th percentile across the division for total shots. He also ranks in the 96th percentile for aerial duels won, proving he is highly effective in both penalty areas.

The 24-year-old has featured consistently in the Brentford defence this season. The final match of the campaign for the Bees involves an away fixture at Anfield against his former club, Liverpool. The defender felt disappointed to leave the Reds, but his transfer to West London has clearly improved his overall performance.

He will feel highly motivated to show Liverpool that allowing him to leave was a mistake. Because Liverpool have conceded 20 goals from set pieces so far this season, Van den Berg definitely has a strong chance to score this weekend.

Mosquera is no stranger to being in the opposition’s penalty area

Wolverhampton Wanderers defender Yerson Mosquera has not yet scored a goal this season. That statistic is highly surprising, considering the 26-year-old Colombian has accumulated 2.29 expected goals (xG) across his 2,052 minutes of Premier League football.

Operating as an overlapping central defender, Mosquera frequently commits to attacking positions. Impressively, he ranks in the 92nd percentile in the Premier League for shots attempted and the 87th percentile for touches inside the opposition penalty area.

Those statistics suggest Mosquera can create significant problems during attacking transitions and set pieces. Their final day opponents, Burnley, are already relegated and have the worst defensive record in the division. In fact, the Clarets have conceded an average of exactly two goals per match.

A victory for Wolves at Turf Moor would move them out of last place, ensuring Burnley finish the campaign at the absolute bottom of the league table.

Could Tonali sign off from the Magpies with a final-day goal?

Media reports regarding the long-term future of Newcastle midfielder Sandro Tonali are intensifying. The former Milan player has been an outstanding performer in the center of midfield since joining from the Serie A giants. However, it’s likely that he’ll be transferred this summer.

Tonali is yet to find the net in the 2025/26 campaign, but he has 1.74 xG to his name. The Italian generally takes a lot of Newcastle’s set pieces, and he is highly capable of scoring directly from free kicks. He scored two free kicks for AC Milan, but has yet to do so for Newcastle.

The 26-year-old ranks in the 75th percentile for total ball touches per game in the Premier League. He’s a big influence on how the Magpies play and control possession. If Sunday’s trip to Fulham does prove to be his final game, he’ll be eager to end his tenure on a high.