How to Bet on Same Nations Derbies in the Champions League

There is a Madrid derby as Real face Atletico, and a Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen. Should the league be factored in?

Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid 

Making a prediction when Los Blancos face Rojiblancos is already difficult, let alone in a two-legged UCL affair. All of their last five meetings across all competitions have ended up in draws after 90 minutes, and both teams have scored on every occasion. With a semifinal spot on the line, it’s hard to see this one being any different. 

For the first leg, at least, Carlo Ancelotti’s side have a significant advantage. They are on home soil, sit above Atletico in La Liga, and are stalwarts in Europe’s greatest club competition. Ahead of their clash with Real Betis, they were on a seven-game unbeaten run, proving very difficult to beat. 

While this is a different sort of game compared to their recent league encounters, those clashes need to be taken into account. The last three ended 1-1, and 11 of their last 16 resulted in under 2.5 goals being scored – available at 1.90 for this one. Those who think it might end 1-1 again can find it at 7.00. 

Looking at recent same-nation Champions League ties, there aren’t many clear patterns. Of the 25 knockout games since 1997/98, the team playing away first has progressed – only three away teams have won in the last seven attempts. Home advantage clearly plays a role. 

It has been almost a decade since Diego Simeone won at the Bernabeu, and it’s hard to see that changing. 

Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen 

Few teams - if any - have caused Bayern as many problems in recent years as Leverkusen. Xabi Alonso’s men are unbeaten against Die Roten in their last six meetings with them, and they knocked them out of the DFB Pokal in December. Can they do it on the European stage? 

Two Bundesliga sides haven’t faced off in the knockout stages of the UCL since 1999. The only German-German clash since then was the 2013 final where Bayern triumphed over Borussia Dortmund, and that’s now over a decade ago. Everything suggests this affair will be a tight one. 

The last three meetings between these two have ended with under 2.5 goals, and the last six have seen under 3.5. The 'both teams to score' market, meanwhile, is best avoided - it has occurred only once in the last four. Neither side has been very good in the BTTS market in the Bundesliga lately either. 

As previously mentioned, these ties tend to have a home victory more often than not and Bayern, playing at the Allianz Arena, will be confident of their chances. Incredibly, Leverkusen have not lost to a German opponent away from home since May 2023, and they will make it difficult.

You can get a double chance on Bayern and under 2.5 goals at 2.70, while any Leverkusen win is at 4.00. Vincent Kompany’s men have a 53% win probability for the first leg. Their nine home wins out of 10 will give them plenty of confidence.