How to bet on English comebacks in the Champions League second legs

 Liverpool hope to overturn a 1-0 deficit to Galatasaray. Meanwhile, Man City, Tottenham and Chelsea all face tougher challenges.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Six clubs but no wins in a miserable European week for the Premier League

The standout performance among a record-breaking six English clubs in the Champions League knockout stage came from Newcastle. Barcelona found the Magpies’ physicality tough to handle, but a late penalty denied Eddie Howe’s side a famous victory.

Tournament favourites Arsenal could also only draw 1-1 away to Bayer Leverkusen. They’re still heavily favoured to progress next week. Liverpool are also given an implied probability of 73.3% of reaching the next round, despite their narrow defeat.

The other Premier League teams face much steeper challenges. Chelsea were humbled 5-2 by holders PSG, while Atletico Madrid beat Tottenham by the same scoreline. Most surprisingly, Man City slumped to a 3-0 loss against one of the weakest Real Madrid sides in years.

All English clubs except Newcastle will have home advantage next week. However, history suggests overturning a three-goal deficit is extremely difficult. 

Only once has a Premier League team come back from a three-goal deficit to win a UCL knockout tie. Liverpool famously beat Barcelona 4-0 at Anfield in 2019 after losing their semi-final first leg 3-0.

Teams have only overturned three-goal deficits on four occasions. The greatest ever Champions League comeback came in 2017, when Barcelona overturned a 4-0 first-leg loss to PSG to advance. 

Which English teams are most likely to come back?

Liverpool face the most manageable task among the English clubs trailing in their ties. The Reds had won five of their previous six matches in all competitions before losing in Istanbul.

They can draw confidence from what happened in Galatasaray’s play-off tie against Juventus. The Turkish side dominated the first leg, winning 5-2 at home. However, they nearly collapsed to a dismal exit in the return clash, allowing 5.20 xG across 120 minutes in Turin.

Galatasaray even had a man-advantage for most of that game. That raises doubts about their ability to close out the tie at Anfield, while Liverpool appear strong with a -2 handicap.

As for Chelsea, they mostly competed well against PSG. A goalkeeping error from Filip Jorgensen contributed to a 5-2 loss, but they only allowed 0.90 xG. The Blues surpassed that tally, creating four big chances compared to the Parisians’ two.

That suggests they are capable of winning the second leg at Stamford Bridge. However, it’s just one clean sheet in 12 matches for Liam Rosenior’s side. Backing Chelsea and both teams to score may be the smart pick.

There were no positives for Man City on a miserable night at the Bernabeu. However, an early goal at the Etihad could unsettle an injury-ravaged Real Madrid. Los Blancos have been struggling, with defeats in two of their last three league games.

City will need a fast start, and they have frequently managed it this season. Their +27 first-half goal difference in the Premier League stands in stark contrast to just +5 after half-time. They are well-placed to be leading at the interval, with an implied probability of 51.2%.