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Xabi Alonso becoming Real Madrid manager feels inevitable after Bayer Leverkusen boss rejected Liverpool and Bayern Munich

The saga is over, sort of. Neither Liverpool nor Bayern Munich know who will be their manager next season, but they can at least cross one name of both of their shortlists: Xabi Alonso. After all-but wrapping up the 2023-24 Bundesliga title with Bayer Leverkusen, it emerged that Alonso - who was widely assumed to be leaving this summer - will stay for one more year.

And that makes sense. Alonso may have achieved something remarkable this season, and could yet end it with three trophies and an invincible campaign. But there's still a sense that there remains unfinished business for him at the BayArena. Leverkusen now have Champions League football to look forward to, and perhaps a bit more spending power in the summer could see them well-positioned to defend their domestic crown - especially with Bayern facing a thin market for a new coach this summer.

But there are darker forces at play here. For all of the feel-good talk of Alonso 'running it back', there is a presumptive licking of lips from the shadows in the Spanish capital. His decision to push back an assumed exit leaves Real Madrid with terrifying flexibility, as football's most-wanted coach now seems destined to take his talents to Santiago Bernabeu as early as 2025.

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    Staying put

    For months, it was widely assumed that Alonso would leave Leverkusen at the end of the season. All of the pieces seemed to be falling into place after an exhausted Jurgen Klopp announced that this campaign would be his last on Merseyside, while the crumbling of Bayern's season meant that the disgruntled board had no choice but to get rid of the openly displeased Thomas Tuchel. Two of Alonso's former clubs were now looking for a new coach, and that was just the start of a managerial merry-go-round that will also include Barcelona after Xavi's decision to step down, and could yet be added to by Manchester United, Chelsea and Juventus.

    The rumours took off quickly, with both Liverpool and Bayern reported as being at the front of the queue for the former midfielder at various points over the past couple of months. On Thursday, however, the tone of the reporting changed. Suddenly, both clubs had given up on their presumed primary target.

    Why? Alonso had spent the March international break mulling over his future, and returned to tell his team that he would stay for at least one more season. This summer's big prize was off the market.

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    Madrid's managerial situation

    Whether by accident or design, Real Madrid seem to have engineered this perfectly. Their manager, Carlo Ancelotti, seemed for a while to be on his way out of the club. The Brazilian Football Federation were convinced that they had secured his signature ahead of the Copa America - their president, Ednaldo Rodrigues, even announced that they had agreed a deal - despite Ancelotti insisting he had little knowledge of the situation.

    That saga ended in December, as Ancelotti penned a new deal to stay at Madrid until 2026 - avoiding the awkwardness of an expiring contract coinciding with the emergence of a rejuvenated squad that he had been central to building. The specifics of his deal aren't clear, but there are reports that the contract doesn't guarantee that Ancelotti has to stay in Madrid in a managerial role until the end of the 2025-26 campaign. It seems, then, that there is wiggle room for him to depart at the end of next season - exactly when Alonso could become available.

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    Time really up for Carlo?

    This iteration of Madrid is one of the Ancelotti's finest projects. He may have benefitted from the arrival current Ballon d'Or favourite Jude Bellingham, but this is an otherwise imbalanced Madrid squad. La Liga's leaders have seven top-class midfielders, no natural right winger, and lost reigning Ballon d'Or winner Karim Benzema last summer but failed to adequately replace him. There was still talent available to Ancelotti, but the configuration looked tricky.

    The Italian has, however, solved it all, mostly by using Bellingham as a false nine and entrusting Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo to play as split strikers - giving Madrid the kind of dangerous counter-attacking punch that has them strolling to the league title.

    But there is a sense that after the next campaign, Ancelotti's cycle might come to an end. Toni Kroos' Madrid career will be all-but over by then, while Luka Modric seems set to leave at the end of the current season. Should Kylian Mbappe do as expected and move to the Spanish capital, there is a real argument for a fresh face in the dugout after Ancelotti has one year to tinker with the side to his liking.

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    Alonso's credentials

    There are few jobs in the sport as difficult or fickle as taking the helm at Real Madrid. It has proved, in fact, to be the death of many great coaches over the years - as well as the making of some others. Ancelotti, in many ways, is the perfect man for the role. He handles the ravenous press well, maintains the expectations of fans, and allows his side to play with enough freedom to cultivate an entertaining on-field product. His tactics - or lack thereof - have been criticised at times, but it is hard to argue with his handsome trophy haul over two spells at the club.

    Alonso is a different kind of manager. He certainly has the gravitas necessary for the role, and the kind of respect around the game that will certainly buy him some time from supporters and media alike. Still, the former Madrid midfielder - who learned his coaching craft in Los Blancos' academy - is more of a shrewd tactician than an infectious personality.

    Leverkusen has been the perfect match due to the relatively low stakes he walked into. The Spaniard took a struggling side and built them into title-winners. Madrid are already title-winners who have to remain as such - all while having the most expensive squad in the world. This is not an easy remit for a manager with less than two full years of top-flight coaching experience.

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    The right fit

    Still, for all of the question marks - and there are still a few - Alonso is an intelligent manager who has pulled off a masterclass in giant-killing. Even though Bayern had shown signs of weakness over the previous campaign, they still came into this season as strong title favourites. It is to Alonso's credit, then, that he has been able to turn the league on its head, there has to be a belief that his methods can work on a bigger stage.

    There is also the benefit of his connection to Madrid to factor in. Alonso joined Los Blancos in 2009, and spent four years as a regular in the club's midfield. It was an awkward period for Madrid, who struggled to compete with the might of Pep Guardiola's Barcelona side of the early 2010s. Still, Alonso was a vital part of a side that won La Liga in 2012, two Copas del Rey, and the 2014 Champions League.

    He returned to Spain after retiring, too, spending 18 months in the Madrid academy while he completed his coaching badges before going on to earn promotion as manager of Real Sociedad's B team. He has constantly reaffirmed his love for Madrid over the years, and he understands what it means to be a Madridista. If there ever was a young manager ready for this job, Alonso is the one.

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    Inevitable?

    Things could look different for Alonso at the end of next season. It remains possible that despite the manager staying put, some of Leverkusen's best players get pinched by bigger clubs around Europe this summer, as Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong and Victor Boniface have all cropped up in transfer rumours. Bayern, too, are capable of turning their fortunes around quickly with the right coach in charge, and for all of Alonso's qualities as a manager, there is historic difficulty in trying to retain success as a smaller-market team - especially when the competition is the Bavarian behemoth (just ask Klopp).

    But should Leverkusen continue to impress, and Alonso's brand of football continue to catch the eye, his exit feels inevitable. Madrid, of course, have pull by name alone, while the opportunity to work with what will perhaps be the most complete squad in the world will be nearly impossible for any manager to turn down. There is also a certain romanticism to factor in given Alonso's connections to the club.

    This may not be the scenario the world envisioned. Ask even the most optimistic Madridistas just a few months ago, and most would probably have conceded that Alonso would be in the dugout in either Germany or England for the foreseeable future. Now, though, things have changed. Madrid, it seems, will get their way once again.