Both sides are in solid domestic form, with Forest moving clear of the relegation zone and Villa solidifying 5th place and a guaranteed UCL spot.
Best bets for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
- Forest or draw & both teams to score (Yes) at odds of 2.40 with bet365
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80 with bet365
- Aston Villa (1st goal) at odds of 2.05 with bet365
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Value in backing the hosts and goals
Although Forest tend to fare better on the road than at home, The City Ground is sure to be highly supportive on Thursday night. Forest fans have waited more than a generation for the chance to reach another major European final. They won’t want to make the match easy for their Midlands rivals.
With Villa only averaging 1.40 points per away game in the Europa League, backing the draw or an exciting home win offers value. We’ve also paired it with a back of both teams to score. Their last five meetings have ended this way, while Villa have failed to keep a clean sheet against Forest in their last six meetings.
Forest have secured significant results at home in Europe this season. This includes their 1-0 victory over Portuguese giants Porto two weeks ago.
- Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Bet 1: Forest or draw & Both teams to score (Yes) at odds of 2.40 with bet365
Tight encounter anticipated in first leg
Nottingham Forest’s home games in this season’s Europa League have yielded 1.80 goals per game on average. Meanwhile, Aston Villa’s away games have yielded 2.40 goals per game this season.
We can back Thursday’s game to feature fewer than three goals at a probability of only 55.56%. This is a solid bet, since neither side will want to lose or give up too much ground to their opponents with a second leg to follow.
Four of the last six meetings between the two sides at The City Ground have also ended with two or fewer goals scored.
- Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80 with bet365
Visitors expected to open the scoring
Examining the head-to-head data, we’ve found some solid value on Villa to get the first goal on Thursday night. They’ve scored first in their last five meetings with Forest. In addition, Villa have scored first in seven of their last eight games across all competitions.
We can back Emery’s men to open the scoring at an odds-against probability of 47.62%. Forest have overperformed their xGA so far in the competition. They’ve conceded 0.60 goals per home game, which is below their 0.93 xGA.
Villa have averaged 1.20 goals scored per away game in this season’s Europa League campaign. Despite Forest’s improved recent form, Villa will aim to make their more recent European experience count in the early exchanges.
- Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Bet 3: Aston Villa (1st goal) at odds of 2.05 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa
- Goalscorers prediction - Nottingham Forest: Gibbs-White - Aston Villa: Rogers
The City Ground is the stage for the first leg of this fascinating all-English Europa League semi-final between Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa.
Forest are in strong form after winning three of their last four Premier League games. Those 10 points have seen Forest move five points clear of the relegation zone, allowing them to focus squarely on Thursday’s tie.
Thursday is Forest’s first European semi-final in four decades, so The City Ground atmosphere is sure to be vibrant. Forest secured a 5-0 victory at Sunderland in the league to prepare for this tie, with a switch to a 4-4-2 formation proving very effective. Forest have surprisingly performed better away from home than at home in the Europa League this season. They have averaged 1.60 points per home game and 2.20 points per away game.
Aston Villa boss Unai Emery is a serial Europa League winner. The Spaniard has worked his magic on numerous occasions at this level and Villa will be eager to repeat the feat next month. Although they already have a Champions League place almost secured through their league position, winning a European trophy would be a major achievement.
Although Villa romped to a 3-1 away win at Bologna in the previous round, their away form in the competition is inconsistent. They’ve averaged just 1.40 points per away game, versus 2.40 points per game at Villa Park. They have also lost two of their last three visits to The City Ground. Emery may aim to contain and frustrate Forest in this opening leg, with the second leg to follow at Villa Park next week.
Probable lineups for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest expected lineup: Sels, Aina, Williams, Milenkovic, Jair Cunha, Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Sangare, Anderson, Wood, Igor Jesus
Aston Villa expected lineup: Martinez, Cash, Digne, Konsa, Torres, Bogarde, Tielemans, McGinn, Buendia, Rogers, Watkins