Our betting expert expects Ollie Watkins to score in an important victory for top-five hopefuls Aston Villa.
Best bets for Aston Villa vs Sunderland
- First half - Aston Villa at odds of 2.20 on bet365
- Aston Villa to win & Under 4.5 goals at odds of 2.00 on bet365
- Ollie Watkins to score anytime at odds of 2.50 on bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Villa to make a bright start
The recent return to fitness of Youri Tielemans and John McGinn has made a huge difference to Aston Villa. They’d been struggling to cope without the duo and fellow midfielder Boubacar Kamara in early 2026.
The Birmingham club were 3-0 up by the break on Thursday in the Europa League. They also missed a penalty in the first half against Bologna. Villa have scored before the interval in all of their last four matches in all competitions.
Sunderland’s poor first-half record also points towards the hosts making the better start to this game. Only 30% of Regis Le Bris’ side’s Premier League goals have come before the interval. They’ve scored just three times in the opening 45 minutes away from home this season.
Given that, Villa are the value bet to win the first half, with an implied probability of 45.5%.
- Aston Villa vs Sunderland Bet 1: First half - Aston Villa at odds of 2.20 on bet365
Hosts to seal victory to boost top-five hopes
Momentum is key at this point in the season, and Aston Villa seem to be returning to form again. They’ve won four of their last five matches in all competitions. Emery’s team were too strong for Bologna on Thursday, registering 2.42 xG to their opponents’ 0.96.
Villa also boast a strong record immediately after Europa League fixtures this term. They’ve won eight out of 11 in the Premier League in games following European engagements.
Sunderland are having a terrific campaign, but they have struggled on the road against the top sides. They’ve not scored away to top-four opponents and have conceded eight goals across three matches.
Backing a low-scoring home win could be the smart bet. Only one of Sunderland’s 32 Premier League fixtures has produced more than four goals. Meanwhile, 15 of Villa’s 16 home league engagements have ended with four or fewer goals.
- Aston Villa vs Sunderland Betting Tip 2: Aston Villa to win & Under 4.5 goals at odds of 2.00 on bet365
Watkins’ return to form to continue
Another positive for the home team heading into this match is the return to form of Ollie Watkins. Having not made the most recent England squad, the 30-year-old has a point to prove ahead of the World Cup.
By his own admission, this hasn’t been Watkins’ best season. However, he has been sharper in recent games, scoring four times in his last four appearances. The former Brentford striker netted his 100th Aston Villa goal on Thursday night.
He needs just one more to reach 10 Premier League goals for the sixth season running. While Sunderland are organised defensively, they have just one clean sheet in 12 outings against current top-eight sides. Backing Watkins to breach the Mackems’ defence could be the smart move on Sunday.
- Aston Villa vs Sunderland Bet 3: Ollie Watkins to score anytime at odds of 2.50 on bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Aston Villa 2-1 Sunderland
- Goalscorers prediction - Aston Villa: Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers - Sunderland: Brian Brobbey
Aston Villa head into this game following a dominant 4-0 victory over Bologna in the Europa League. That result set up an all-English semi-final against Nottingham Forest.
That’s one potential path to Champions League qualification for Unai Emery’s side. However, they are also well-placed to finish in the top five. The Villans have beaten West Ham and drawn with Forest in their last two league games.
Sunderland head into this match following back-to-back victories. They saw off Newcastle to complete a Tyne-Wear derby double before the international break. A 1-0 win over Tottenham last time out leaves the Mackems in genuine European contention.
Probable lineups for Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Aston Villa expected lineup: Martinez, Maatsen, Torres, Konsa, Cash, Sancho, Tielemans, Onana, McGinn, Rogers, Watkins
Sunderland expected lineup: Roefs, Reinildo, Alderete, O’Nien, Mukiele, Xhaka, Sadiki, Le Fee, Diarra, Rigg, Brobbey