Barca hold a four-point advantage over their rivals with nine games to play, but a demanding schedule suggests they could slip up.
| La Liga winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1.20 |
| Real Madrid | 4.33 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Barcelona
At their best, Barcelona have been comfortably the most impressive team in Spain this season. They’ve scored 78 times in La Liga, which is 15 more than Real Madrid. When Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, and Pedri are all completely fit, they're an incredibly strong attacking force.
While the other two may receive more praise, Raphinha is arguably the most important of the three. He is the player who leads the pressing with his energy levels. When the Brazilian is absent, opponents have more time to pass the ball out from their defence and target Barcelona’s high defensive line more regularly.
Hansi Flick’s team have lost three of their nine league games without Raphinha this term. Their only other La Liga defeat came at Girona in February. They were drawing that match 1-1 when the winger was substituted after 64 minutes.
Marcus Rashford is set to fill in on the left flank. His attacking statistics are impressive, having recorded nine goals and nine assists across league and Champions League matches. Those figures are from only 18 starts, but the 28-year-old cannot match Raphinha’s impact off the ball.
The ex-Leeds man is expected to miss what could be seven games in April. The next four will all be demanding, with a derby against Espanyol sandwiched among three clashes with Atletico Madrid. They could also have a Champions League semi-final to play before Raphinha recovers from a recurring hamstring injury.
A four-point advantage remains a significant lead at this stage of the season. However, Barcelona appeared tired at home against Rayo Vallecano in their previous match. Flick’s team lost the xG count by a 1.56 to 1.39 margin and were fortunate to secure a 1-0 victory.
Late season trips to Getafe, Osasuna, Alaves, and Valencia could all prove difficult if the players become fatigued. Those teams are either fighting to avoid relegation or to secure European places. Given Raphinha's injury, Barcelona appear to offer too little betting value at their current odds to win La Liga.
Real Madrid
With Atletico out of contention, only Real Madrid can prevent Barcelona from winning consecutive Spanish titles. Los Blancos were close to dropping out of the race when they lost two successive league fixtures against Osasuna and Getafe. However, Fede Valverde’s deflected 95th-minute winner in Vigo on matchday 27 already appears to be a massive turning point.
That initiated a five-game winning streak in all competitions heading into the international break. An under-pressure Alvaro Arbeloa outwitted Pep Guardiola in the Champions League as Los Blancos unexpectedly secured a comfortable victory against Manchester City.
Because the decision to play 18-year-old midfielder Thiago Pitarch has been successful, Real Madrid have become a revitalised team. The teenager started again as Los Blancos won the derby 3-2 against Atleti in their most recent game.
Getting that game out of the way also means they can now look ahead to a more favourable domestic schedule. However, much may still depend on which teams progress in European competitions.
Barcelona are favourites to win their Champions League quarter-final, whereas Real Madrid are underdogs against Bayern Munich. If those matches finish exactly as expected, Los Blancos would enter a likely decisive Clasico match in May with significantly more rest. They’ve already beaten Barca in La Liga this term, giving them the head-to-head advantage.
The other standout fixture that could pose problems for Arbeloa’s side is away to fifth-placed Real Betis. However, the Andalusian team could be participating in a Europa League semi-final during the following week.
With Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappe, and Eder Militao fit again, Real Madrid’s injury problems are improving. They seem to offer value to win La Liga with an implied probability of 23.1%.