The £70m north London derby: How Arsenal could be transformed by Champions League return

It’s a north London derby four months in the making.

When Arsenal step out at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Thursday night, they will no doubt be targeted by a crowd that will be even more hostile than usual at the home of their bitter rivals.

Anger and frustration has been simmering under the surface at Spurs ever since the fixture, originally scheduled for January, was postponed by the Premier League at Arsenal’s late request due to a lack of available players.

It was a decision that caused huge amounts of controversy, with Tottenham believing Arsenal had used the Covid-19 rules that were in place at the time to their advantage, given they actually had just one player unavailable due to the virus.

But Arsenal were adamant they had done nothing wrong – a stance they still stick to today.

“What happened was a long time ago now,” Mikel Arteta said. “This is the game that we have to play and we are much closer to the end.

"The game has taken a much different level of importance because of the situation that we are both in."

There is no doubt that the delayed nature of this North London derby will add even more spice to what is always an incredibly fractious affair.

Arsenal go into the game four points ahead of fifth-placed Spurs knowing that victory will see them return to the Champions League next season for the first time since 2017.

Even a draw will mean that Mikel Arteta’s side would only need one win from their final two games, against Newcastle and Everton, to guarantee themselves a place back amongst Europe’s elite.

So, for Tottenham, it’s very much win or bust, meaning this is undoubtedly the biggest north London derby in years.

“It’s the opportunity to achieve something we haven’t achieved for many years,” Arteta said. “It’s the game that will decide it. 

“Normally, you don’t play games like that in the league unless you are competing for the trophy. But we know what this game can deliver to us is really important.”

“It [the Champions League] is what we want. It’s what we haven’t been able to achieve in the past few years and it’s had big consequences for the club in the atmosphere, the environment around it, and financially. 

“We want to put that right.”

Victory for Arsenal would be transformative in terms of the rebuild that is currently taking place under Arteta.

Five years outside of the Champions League has seen the Gunners' finances take a major hit, with the coronavirus pandemic then adding to the problem.

Whilst Arsenal have enjoyed some success in the Europa League, reaching the final once and semi-final twice, the financial rewards on offer in Europe’s second-tier competition are nothing compared to its more illustrious big brother.

Tottenham, meanwhile, have qualified for the Champions League in four of the last five seasons and have moved to a new money-spinning stadium during the same timeframe.

And that has allowed them to move ahead of Arsenal in the Premier League's revenue table – something that would have been considered all but impossible just a short time ago.

“Because they have been out of the Champions League for so long, Arsenal have sort of become the big five plus one, rather than part of the the big six,” Kieran Maguire of the Price of Football told GOAL.

“It’s certainly noticeable that Arsenal’s wages, which used to be very competitive, are now significantly below those of the clubs that they would like to be considered on the same level as.

“And unless you are paying top-level wages, you are not going to be able to attract the top-level talent and the danger of that is that gap becomes reinforced if you don’t qualify for the Champions League on a regular basis because you simply haven’t got the resources to offer to the players

“So, they need to reverse the trend.”

Should Arsenal qualify for the Champions League and then progress through the group stages next season, it would secure the club around £70 million ($86m) in extra revenue.

Just reaching the group stage alone would guarantee about £30m ($37m) and that is before you consider the extra revenue that would be generated from new and existing commercial deals.

Financially, there is simply no comparison between the Champions League and the Europa League. 

“When you look at the documentation that comes from UEFA itself, the rough rule of thumb is for every euro earned in the Europa League, it works out at around €5 in the Champions League,” Maguire explained.

“Manchester United were the worst performing English club in the Champions League this season and they generated about £55m ($68m) from prize money for only getting as far as the last 16.

“On top of that you have the benefit of match day income and, as far as Arsenal are concerned, in the Champions League they can charge much higher prices than they could for the Europa League on a Thursday night, when they could be at home to the third-best team in Albania.

“Arsenal realistically are looking at £4/4.5m minimum from a home fixture in terms of match day income. So, you have three guaranteed of those, which adds up to £12/13m on top of the £55m of getting the last 16.

“Overall, you’re looking at earning somewhere in the region of £70m.”

Those sort of financial rewards would be huge for Arsenal this summer as they continue to try and build a squad that could have them competing for the Premier League title again.

Arteta has big plans for the summer, with two new forwards, a central midfielder and a full-back on the agenda.

There are also contract talks planned with several members of the senior squads, including Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli.

The cash that the Champions League would bring in would make those discussions easier, as well as making Arsenal a far more attractive prospect to transfer targets like Gabriel Jesus and Youri Tielemans. 

Qualifying ahead of Spurs and condemning them to Europa League football next season would also more than likely lead to the Gunners moving back ahead of their rivals in the revenue stakes.

“Arsenal do have the capacity to do that,” said Maguire.

“Spurs have been ahead for the last couple of years and they have even overtaken them on commercial income, which was unheard of when they were at the old White Hart Lane.

“So, Arsenal do have some catching up to do, but they could certainly reverse that situation by having the advantage of being in the Champions League.”

Thursday night’s clash has so much riding on it that it was no surprise to hear Arteta compare it to a cup final.

In recent years, the north London derby has always just been about bragging rights. This time, however, there is far more at stake.

“If we win we are in the Champions League,” the Arsenal manager said. “You don’t need any more motivation than that.”