A close battle is brewing to clinch what’s likely to be Italy’s final Champions League place for the 2026/27 season.
| Serie A top-four finish | Odds |
|---|---|
| Juventus | 2.10 |
| Roma | 2.25 |
| Como | 2.75 |
| Atalanta | 29.00 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Juventus
Inter, Milan, and Napoli currently occupy the top three spots in Serie A. They all appear set to qualify for the Champions League, but Juventus are down in sixth place. The Turin-based side are given an implied probability of 47.6% to finish in the top four.
A difficult start to 2026 has seen them exit two cup competitions and slide down the league table. Juve had won just once in seven matches before cruising to a 4-0 win over Pisa last weekend.
An injury to influential Bremer contributed to their defensive struggles. Juve conceded four times after the Brazilian was forced off as their Champions League ambitions ended against Galatasaray. They are a much stronger side when the centre-back is available, which is now the case.
Key attacker Kenan Yildiz returned to form with a goal and an assist in his last match. That also bodes well for their chances of regaining form.
The Old Lady rank second in Serie A for xG with 50.0, and second in terms of xPTS (expected points) on 54.1. With no more cup matches to distract them, they are worthy favourites to edge out Roma and Como in the top-four race. Their current price appears to be a fair reflection of their chances.
Roma
Under the guidance of former Atalanta boss Gian Piero Gasperini, Roma recorded inconsistent results in their debut season. He has struggled to get much out of his strikers. However, Donyell Malen's arrival in January has made a difference, with the Aston Villa loanee already their joint-top scorer.
The Dutchman has netted six times in eight Serie A outings, although Roma only managed to win three of those games. They also have the significant distraction of a Europa League clash against Bologna over the next fortnight.
In between the two legs of that tie, I Giallorossi face a crucial league away fixture against Como. They're currently on a four-game winless run on the road across all competitions. Following a quick turnaround, Gasperini's side will be underdogs at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
Roma are at a clear disadvantage compared to Juventus and Como, given their European schedule. They will be taking the Europa League seriously, particularly as the winners qualify for the Champions League.
The underlying data also suggests they are the weakest of the three main contenders for fourth place. The side from the capital rank only sixth with 44.8 xPTS. Those factors make Roma seem too short at their current odds for a top-four finish.
Como
Following heavy investment in recent years, Como have been patiently building a squad capable of challenging Italy's top clubs. A short-passing style has delivered their best results yet this season under the guidance of Cesc Fabregas.
Como have recorded an average 61.3% share of the ball in Serie A this term. That's more than any other team, including leaders Inter. Meanwhile, only Inter and Juve can better their xPTS tally of 49.8.
They have lost only twice at home and will need to keep performing well in front of their own supporters. Aside from Roma this weekend, Inter and Napoli still have to visit the Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
Encouragingly for their Champions League qualification ambitions, Como have also started to win more consistently away from home. They've been in great form on the road, securing 16 points from their last six away fixtures.
Fabregas' side don't have to play away matches against any team in the top eight in the run-in. Meanwhile, they still have games against all of the bottom three. Overall, I Lariani appear to be the value bet in the top-four market, with their odds sure to shorten if they defeat Roma on Sunday.
Atalanta
Atalanta are the only other club with a realistic chance of catching the teams in the top six. They are outsiders in the race for a top-four finish, with an implied probability of 3.4%.
A run of just one defeat in 11 league matches means they should not be overlooked. The Bergamo-based side managed to defeat both Roma and Napoli during that period. However, dropped points against Sassuolo and Udinese in their last two league matches suggest that a heavy schedule is taking its toll.
They stunned Borussia Dortmund in the play-off round to ensure they're the only Italian team remaining in the Champions League. In addition, there's a Coppa Italia semi-final second leg against Lazio to come in April.
Atalanta also face some challenging fixtures in Serie A, with four of the top six still to play. They could yet surpass one of the teams above them, but overtaking three will be almost impossible.