While the likes of Bournemouth and Brighton are in poor form, it’s still hard to see anyone outside the bottom five going down.
| Premier League relegation | Odds |
|---|---|
| Wolves | 1.01 |
| Burnley | 1.06 |
| West Ham | 1.40 |
| Nottingham Forest | 6.00 |
| Leeds | 6.50 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Burnley
With Wolves on just three points, this is already effectively a fight to avoid the other two relegation places. The betting markets suggest Burnley are also near certain to join the West Midlands club in next season’s Championship. That’s despite them being only six points from safety at the midway point.
A sudden run of form could change the outlook for the Clarets. However, virtually all the underlying metrics suggest there is little prospect of that.
With 37 goals conceded, Burnley have already let in more than twice as many league goals as last season. Scott Parker’s side have found it impossible to replicate their Championship defensive record at the higher level. They’ve also allowed 36.8 xG, which is the most in the English top flight.
An xG difference of -19.5 highlights flaws at both ends, with a 3-1 defeat to Newcastle the latest setback. The Lancashire outfit are unlikely to spend big in January and an immediate return to the second tier is almost inevitable.
West Ham
Despite a few encouraging early results under Nuno Espirito Santo, West Ham are also odds-on for the drop. That’s a reflection of an eight-game winless run under the ex-Nottingham Forest boss.
These are now deeply worrying times for Hammers’ fans, who have long been disillusioned with life at the London Stadium. Their players at least stopped the rot, but could only draw 2-2 at home to Brighton on Tuesday. They allowed 2.8 xG in that game, their second-worst figure of the campaign.
Defensively, Nuno hasn’t managed to turn things around, and he’ll count on fresh additions in January. The West Ham board are expected to back their manager in the transfer window. That offers hope, but new faces are unlikely before the weekend trip to Molineux.
Wolves picked up a point at Old Trafford on Tuesday, which will give them a boost heading into the game. A victory for West Ham could see them move to within a point of safety.
With plenty of football still to be played, the Londoners look short at their current price. With Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta in their ranks, they do have quality. A couple of smart defensive additions and a new striker could transform their campaign.
Nottingham Forest
The story of Nottingham Forest’s season is similar to that of West Ham. They made two early managerial changes and initially seemed to be making progress under Sean Dyche. However, a run of four defeats in five Premier League games has set the alarm bells ringing again.
Forest were twice beaten to nil by Everton during that period, including a worrying 2-0 home loss on Tuesday. However, their overall performance levels have still been strong enough to suggest they will stay up.
The East Midlands outfit outplayed Tottenham in a 3-0 win at the City Ground in the middle of December. They also beat Liverpool by the same margin at Anfield in November. While inconsistency is a worry, those results suggest they can be competitive in almost any fixture.
A lack of goals up front is one concern. Chris Wood is out injured, while Igor Jesus has managed just one goal in 18 Premier League appearances. They are another team who may be looking for a striker in January.
However, with an organised defence, and the likes of Elliot Anderson and Morgan Gibbs-White in midfield, they should avoid the drop.
Leeds
A five-game unbeaten run, at a time when their rivals have struggled, has changed the outlook for Leeds. They are now only given an implied relegation probability of 14.3%. Daniel Farke’s side currently hold a six-point advantage on the bottom three, with a game in hand.
A shift to a 3-5-2 system and Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s stunning goalscoring form are factors that have contributed to their revival. The ex-Everton striker has scored in six straight league matches.
However, there are still reasons to fear for Leeds. Calvert-Lewin is injury-prone and has only twice previously reached double figures for Premier League goals. That suggests the current good times may not necessarily last.
The Yorkshire side have let in 1.78 goals per game. They’ve also just lost key centre-back Joe Rodon to an injury. The Welshman is set to miss tough upcoming fixtures against Liverpool, Man Utd and Newcastle.
That has the potential to lead to a dip in form for the Whites. Given that, they look like the value pick at their current price in the Premier League relegation market.