Despite a fantastic 2025, these are worrying times at Selhurst Park, and Palace’s relegation odds have been slashed over the past week.
| Premier League relegation | Odds |
|---|---|
| Wolves | 1.00 |
| Burnley | 1.02 |
| West Ham | 1.40 |
| Leeds | 6.50 |
| Nottingham Forest | 8.00 |
| Crystal Palace | 11.0 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
West Ham
Wolves and Burnley appear all but certain to go down. West Ham remain the standout candidates to join them in dropping to the Championship. The Londoners are currently 18th, six points above the relegation zone, with only 14 games remaining.
That difficult position is reflected in an implied probability of 71% that they go on to suffer relegation. However, back-to-back wins in January suggest that Nuno’s side still has a chance.
Their situation could have been even better had they protected a two-goal lead against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. Having only allowed 0.29 xG in the first half of that game and scoring twice, West Ham suffered a 3-2 defeat.
They face a crucial trip to Burnley this weekend. Securing a win would mark their fourth victory in five games across all competitions. That kind of form would really increase the pressure on the three teams immediately above them in the table.
Wingers Crysencio Summerville and Jarrod Bowen are in good form, with both scoring in back-to-back matches. Additionally, Taty Castellanos and Pablo arrived in January to bolster their attack.
That should give Nuno enough firepower to work with over the final months of the season. At their current price, their odds appear too short to consider backing as a relegation pick.
Leeds
With an implied relegation probability of 15%, Leeds are considered as the most likely team to slip below West Ham. They’d been on a great run heading into last weekend’s clash with Arsenal, losing just once in 11 Premier League outings. However, a 4-0 home loss against the leaders has likely decreased their confidence.
Prior to that match, only two other teams had managed to win at Elland Road all season, and no visiting side had won by a margin of more than one goal.
With only one away league win, Daniel Farke’s side cannot afford to struggle at home, or they risk being dragged back into a relegation battle. However, one heavy loss to the league leaders isn't necessarily a cause for panic.
With 34.6 xPTS (expected points), Leeds rank 11th in the Premier League. That’s the mark of a team that is consistently competing well. Additionally, they are converting far more chances now. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored nine goals, gaining the status of one of the best signings of the season.
Overall, 15% seems like a fair reflection of Leeds’ relegation prospects from this position. They face a key game at home to Nottingham Forest on Friday. The result of that match will likely cause a major shift in the market.
Nottingham Forest
Having spent heavily last summer, Nottingham Forest were operating on a lower budget in the January transfer window. They added Stefan Ortega and Luca Netz to provide depth in goal and defence. Those signings may aid their Europa League push, but are unlikely to have much impact on their survival prospects.
The success or failure of Lorenzo Lucca, signed on loan from Napoli, may be much more significant. With Chris Wood injured and Igor Jesus scoring only two league goals so far, they desperately needed a striker. The new 25-year-old’s height makes him a perfect target man for Sean Dyche’s system.
However, Lucca has scored only once in 21 appearances across Serie A and Champions League football this term. Most of those opportunities did come off the bench, but those aren’t numbers that suggest he’ll start strongly.
Morgan Gibbs-White is a reliable scorer from midfield. Aside from him, no other Forest player has netted more than three times in the Premier League this season.
That suggests the East Midlands side are going to need to rely on their defence to achieve victory. That’s far from a guarantee, given they’ve allowed 35.7 xG so far, the third-worst record in the division.
Given those issues, there still seems to be some value in backing Forest to be relegated at their current price. They have upcoming crucial fixtures against Leeds and Wolves.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace seemed to have had a better chance of qualifying for the Champions League than of being relegated back in early December. However, a dismal 12-game winless run across all competitions has put them in a difficult spot.
Almost nothing has gone right at Selhurst Park over the past two months. They were hit hard by the Africa Cup of Nations, with Ismaila Sarr’s Senegal progressing to the final. That, along with injuries, contributed to their poor form, which included a humiliating FA Cup defeat to sixth-tier Macclesfield.
Moreover, Oliver Glasner has confirmed his intention to step down in the summer, while key defender Marc Guehi joined Man City. The unrest prompted top scorer Jean-Philippe Mateta to demand a move, although a late switch to Milan fell through.
Palace managed to secure a club-record deal for Jorgen Strand Larsen on deadline day. However, the £48m fee caused quite a stir. The Norwegian has netted only once in 22 Premier League appearances this term for Wolves.
The present situation is a world away from the high spirits of the team that celebrated winning the FA Cup last season. With only three points from nine Premier League games, they are perhaps more vulnerable than anyone should West Ham hit form. Backing Palace to be relegated offers value with an implied probability of 9%.