Super Bowl MVP Odds: Sam Darnold Leads the Betting

Sam Darnold’s odds to win Super Bowl MVP continue to shorten, as the Seahawks QB opened at +130 and is now at +115. Notably, Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson (+3500) has recently entered the top five, surpassing Seahawks WR and return specialist Rashid Shaheed.

Super Bowl MVP Odds

All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

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Today, at 6:30pm EST on NBC, the Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) match up with the New England Patriots in SB LX. While the Patriots have played in the snow in back-to-back games, that won’t be a concern at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA.

Given Seattle is favored to win the game, it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise that three of the top five candidates are Seahawks players. After all, in 1971, Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley became the only player in SB history to win the award while being on the losing team.

Super Bowl MVP Odds - Favorites

Sam Darnold - Seahawks QB #14 (+115)

Currently, Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold is the top candidate to win SB MVP. His stock has undoubtedly risen in the playoffs, as he’s totaled four passing touchdowns and no interceptions after throwing 14 picks in the regular season.

The quarterback of the winning team is usually the guy who wins this award, so it’s only natural that Darnold is the betting favorite. If he plays the way he did in the 31-27 NFC Championship Game victory against the Rams, the award is his to lose.

Darnold completed 25 of 36 pass attempts for a season-high 346 yards and three TDs. It helps having WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who caught ten of those passes for 153 yards and a score. He also showed impressive arm strength on deep throws, which should keep the Pats guessing.

Drake Maye - Patriots QB #10 (+230)

One of two Patriots players on the five-man shortlist, second-year quarterback Drake Maye was a regular-season MVP finalist. He was in the top four in the NFL in yards, passing touchdowns, and QBR. Maye is a supremely talented player, but his inexperience has been showing.

In the playoffs, Maye hasn’t been anywhere near as effective a passer as he was in the regular season. He’s yet to break a 60 percent completion percentage in three games, in which he’s averaged 177.7 passing yards. Granted, he had to deal with snow in the previous two games.

Still, he threw a pick each in the Wild Card and Divisional Games and has lost five total turnovers. Maye needs to up his accuracy in the Big Game, but he can still change games with his legs. He’s picked up over 60 rushing yards in two of the Pats’ three playoff victories.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Seahawks WR #11 (+550)

An intriguing dark horse pick to win this award, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the most exciting players in the NFL. The Seahawks WR led the NFL in receiving yards this season and is a CB’s worst nightmare. Smith-Njigba was a first-team All-Pro selection and could take over this game.

He certainly was the star of the show in the first half against the Rams. Smith-Njigba already had 115 receiving yards on seven receptions as the halftime whistle blew. Two wide receivers have won MVP in the preceding ten years, and Smith-Njigba is talented enough to do it as well.

He averaged over 100 receiving yards per game during the regular season and is coming off a 153-yard game in which he also scored a TD. Smith-Njigba is a major reason why the Seahawks have an advantage over the Pats here.

Kenneth Walker III - Seahawks RB #9 (+750)

Some of Kenneth Walker III’s best performances of the season have come in the past few weeks. The Seahawks running back has had to take on more responsibility by default, as Zach Charbonnet went down with an ACL injury in the second quarter of the 41-6 win over the 49ers.

Walker III had a superb game in that Divisional Round win, with 116 rushing yards and three touchdowns. It’s the type of performance that, if repeated, could make him the first running back to win this award for 28 years. However, the Patriots are excellent against the run.

He was less effective against the Rams, with 62 yards on 19 carries, but did add a touchdown. Still, he’s going to get a lot of carries here and is also a factor in the passing game, with 78 receiving yards total in two playoff games.

Rhamondre Stevenson - Patriots RB #38 (+3500)

Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has surpassed Seahawks wide receiver Rashid Shaheed on the odds board. Stevenson is a powerful back who has managed back-to-back games of 70+ rushing yards.

It’ll take a game even better than he had in the 16-3 Wild Card victory over the Chargers to win this award, though. Stevenson picked up 53 rushing yards on ten attempts and 75 receiving yards on three receptions, including a 48-yarder on a checkdown.

Stevenson had two or more touchdowns in each of the Patriots’ final two regular-season games, but has yet to find the end zone in the playoffs. It’ll take a monster game and a Patriots win for Stevenson to have a shot.

How to Bet on the Super Bowl MVP

The SB MVP is a futures bet, a bet on an event happening at a certain point in the future. You typically have a long window to wager on a futures bet, as odds are released early.

Place your wager on your preferred SB MVP candidate by:

1. Accessing your account at a sportsbook
2. Funding your account with a deposit you’re comfortable making
3. Navigating to the NFL section of the website
4. Clicking on the “Futures” section
5. Finding the SB MVP odds and staking an amount on the player you believe will win

Super Bowl MVP Betting History

Quarterbacks have won each of the last three MVP awards in the Big Game and five of the previous six. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has won three of those. Interestingly, no running backs have won the award in the 21st Century, but four defensive players have.

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