USA vs Germany Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for USA vs Germany
- Match to be drawn with odds of @3.30 on Parimatch, equating to a 30.3% implied probability.
- Both teams to score with odds of @1.72 on Parimatch, indicating a 58.1% implied probability.
- Over 2.5 total goals with odds of @1.90 on Parimatch, representing a 52.6% implied probability.
We predict a 2-2 draw between the USA and Germany.
Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
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The Stade Velodrome in Marseille hosts the USA and Germany in Group B of the women’s Olympic football on Sunday night. A win for either team will confirm their place in the knockout phase of the competition.
Emma Hayes began her USWNT tenure with a 3-0 win over Zambia. All three were scored inside the first 25 minutes in what was the most routine of victories for the four-time gold medallists. The betting markets price them as favourites against a strong Germany team this weekend.
It is a new era for the Stars and Stripes. Alex Morgan was controversially left out of the squad for the Games, and several of their greatest ever players have retired in recent years, including Megan Rapinoe and Julie Ertz.
Germany shone in their opening match, seeing off Australia 3-0. After a group-stage exit from the 2023 World Cup and failing to qualify for the Olympics three years ago, Germany have a point to prove this summer. Aside from a shock defeat to Iceland, their form has been excellent.
DFB-Frauenteam have won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions. The squad has plenty of ascendant talents along with the immensely experienced Alexandra Popp.
Probable Lineups for USA vs Germany
USA probable XI:
Naeher; Fox, Davidson, Girma, Dunn; Coffey, Horan; Rodman, Lavelle, Smith; Swanson.
Germany probable XI:
Berger; Gwinn, Hendrich, Hegering, Linder; Brand, Popp, Minge, Buhl; Nusken, Schuller.
Spoils Shared in Marseille
With the two teams high on confidence after emphatic wins in the first round of fixtures, the draw seems to have value here. The USA’s subpar showing at last year’s World Cup and their loss to Mexico earlier this year means we need to see it to believe it against the world’s elite teams, even after winning the Gold Cup.
At 3.10, Germany are tempting to win the match. They made light work of Australia, and their squad has a good mix of youth and experience. Still, their recent performances in big tournaments have been underwhelming.
These are two of the favourites for a gold medal in France. It would be easy to back the USA for the win given their Olympic pedigree, but we prefer sitting on the fence with a draw at 3.30. Sharing the spoils would be a decent outcome for Emma Hayes and Horst Hrubesch after their respective victories.
- USA vs Germany Bet 1: Match to be drawn @ 3.30 with Parimatch
Both Teams Find The Net
The United States might have kept five consecutive clean sheets, but we are backing Germany to score here. The USA’s attacking prowess was on show against Zambia, and they should score at least once against a Germany defence, which kept one clean sheet in six Euros qualifying matches.
Both attacks were productive in their opening matches. Germany scored thrice and registered 17 shots against Australia. The US had 27 shots, and 79% possession against Zambia.
While a draw is a satisfactory result for both teams, this should still be an entertaining game with plenty of attacking talent on display on both sides. Five of Germany’s nine matches in 2024 have seen both teams score – we’re backing that to become six out of 10 on Sunday.
- USA vs Germany Bet 2: Both teams to score @ 1.72 with Parimatch
Backing The Over
If we’re taking BTTS at 1.72, over 2.5 has to be worth a look at 1.90. These two attacks were firing on all cylinders in the opening matches, and they should create plenty of chances on Sunday night.
Seven of the USA’s last nine competitive matches have seen over 2.5 total goals. All of Germany’s last seven matches have delivered three or more total goals. Five of the first six matches at this tournament have produced over 2.5 goals, too.
This price seems very reasonable with those trends. As good as the USA have been defensively, we expect good offence to get the better of solid defence in this one. With 2-2 as our score prediction, we’d also consider taking over 3.5 total goals at 3.20.
- USA vs Germany Bet 3: Over 2.5 total goals @ 1.90 with Parimatch