Youssouf Fofana has consistently been linked with a move away from AS Monaco this summer. After the club overachieved their expected metrics last season, how would selling Fofana impact their chances in 2024-25?
- Milan and Manchester United have been heavily linked with Youssouf Fofana.
- Fofana was in the 95th percentile in progressive passes and the 89th percentile in successful take-ons.
- Monaco were sixth in expected goal difference last season.
| Outright Market | Monaco Odds |
| Top 4 Finish | 1.50 |
| Winner Without PSG | 4.50 |
| Winner | 13.00 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Overachieving Underlying Metrics
Monaco finished second last season, six points ahead of third. Wissam Ben Yedder and Mohamed Camara have already departed, however, and it seems likely Youssouf Fofana will follow them out the door. Monaco significantly overachieved their expected metrics last termnhaving ranked sixth in expected goal difference.
Ben Yedder was the team’s top scorer with 16 league goals. No one else reached double figures. While he only made 14 starts in the league, Camara excelled at breaking up play, ranking in the 91st percentile in tackles per 90. He also was an above-average passer in the middle third, finishing above the 80th percentile in progressive passes and passes attempted.
Fofana would arguably leave an even greater hole than Ben Yedder. He was the do-everything midfielder for Monaco last season, placing in the 78th percentile in shot-creating actions, the 95th percentile for progressive passes, the 89th percentile for take-ons, and the 71st percentile for interceptions. It’s easy to see why he’s a man in demand.
Thus far, Monaco have added 17-year-old striker George Ilenikhena and 20-year-old midfielder Lamine Camara. Thilo Kehrer’s loan move has also been made permanent.
Unproven Squad For 2024-25
Ilenikhena is an exciting prospect. He scored eight goals in under 100 league minutes for Antwerp last season. Having arrived from Metz, Camara could fill that hole in midfield, and his numbers should improve in a stronger team. His profile fits well with solid metrics for ball carrying, tackles, and interceptions.
Monaco’s model has long revolved around buying younger players and developing them. They found success over a prolonged period and their signings so far will bring plenty of optimism. Still, this looks like a transitional summer with proven players departing.
Given their slightly underwhelming expected numbers last season, we envisage Monaco taking a step back in 2024-25. Their 1.50 price to finish in the top four certainly seems on the short side. Rennes and Lille at 4.00 and 2.62 respectively are much better value given the established quality of their squads and their underlying numbers from 2023-24.