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Indiana vs Ohio State Predictions
Liam Isola

Indiana vs Ohio State Predictions - Big Ten Championship Game Picks & Odds

Our CFB expert offers his Indiana vs Ohio State predictions, picks, and odds for tonight’s Big Ten Championship Game at 8:00pm EST (12/6).

The top two teams in NCAA Football meet in tonight’s Big Ten Championship Game as #2 Indiana matches up with #1 Ohio State (-4.5). These unbeaten teams have two of the best defenses in the country, which is why we’re betting on the Alt Total of under 41.5 points (+182).

Indiana vs Ohio State Predictions - 8:00pm EST - 12/6/2025

  • Fernando Mendoza Under 210.5 Passing Yards @ -114
  • Indiana Under 121.5 Rushing Yards @ -114
  • Under 41.5 Points @ +172

All odds are courtesy of CA operators, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.

Indiana vs Ohio State Odds

  • Spread: Ohio State -4.0 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Indiana (+160), Ohio State (-192)
  • Total: 48.0 (O -111, U -111)

Indiana vs Ohio State Picks

Buckeyes to Shut Down Heisman Hopeful - Fernando Mendoza Under 210.5 Passing Yards (-114)

No team in FBS has given up fewer passing yards than Ohio State this season, both per game and per attempt. In the last two games combined, the Buckeyes have allowed just 144 passing yards. They’ve only given up over 200 passing yards in a game once in 12 games as well.  

Now, the Buckeyes are facing Heisman Trophy frontrunner Fernando Mendoza, who has a stellar 6.4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season. The Indiana QB is also averaging 229.8 passing yards per game.

However, it’s worth taking a closer look at the few close games that Indiana has played this season. In a 20-15 win over Iowa, he managed 233 passing yards, in a 30-20 victory at Oregon, he threw for 215 yards, and in a 27-24 win over Penn State, he went for 218.

Still, Ohio State allows under 120 passing yards per game and controls the game’s pace masterfully. Michigan had just 44 offensive snaps and 63 passing yards in Ohio State’s 27-9 victory on Saturday. Go with Mendoza under 210.5 passing yards (-114) tonight.

  • Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction 1: Fernando Mendoza Under 210.5 Passing Yards @ -114

Hoosiers Ground Game to Come to a Halt - Indiana Under 121.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Ohio State’s defense is the best in the country, and the Buckeyes have allowed just 203 total yards per game. Indiana ranks among the rushing leaders in the country, with 223.6 rushing yards per game against FBS opposition.

However, Ohio State gives up under three yards per rush attempt. The Buckeyes have also held every single opponent they have played this season to 100 rushing yards or fewer. Meanwhile, Indiana has only played against two other top-25 rushing defenses in yards allowed this season.

In those games, the Hoosiers picked up 104 yards on the ground against Iowa and 111 against Oregon. Ohio State is measurably better than both teams at stopping the run, and both teams may struggle to move the chains in this one. Bet on Indiana under 121.5 rushing yards (-114).

  • Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction 2: Indiana Under 121.5 Rushing Yards @ -114

Top Defenses to Dominate - Under 41.5 Points (+172)

Ohio State is the only team in FBS holding its opponents to under 10 points per game this season. The Buckeyes held Michigan to nine points in “The Game” and also held Texas to only seven points on the opening weekend of the season.

Indiana is also a top-three scoring defense and shares similarities with Ohio State. Both teams rank in the top five of EPA per pass and rush on both sides of the ball. It’s not going to be easy for either team to score tonight, and I think under 48.5 is a formality.    

So, I’m going with the alternate total of 41.5 (+172), which would still hit with a score of 24-17 or 21-20. When Ohio State has played top-20 teams in opponent PPG this season (Texas, Washington, Michigan), the total points scored have been 21, 30, and 36.

Meanwhile, Indiana has played against two top-20 scoring defenses (Iowa and Oregon), and the totals were 35 and 50.

  • Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction 3: Under 41.5 Points @ +172

Indiana vs Ohio State Start Time

  • Start Time: 8:00pm ET
  • Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Address: 500 S Capitol Ave, Indianapolis, IN 46225
  • TV & Streaming: Fox, Fubo, YouTubeTV, Hulu+Live TV

Heisman trophy favorite Fernando Mendoza and #2 Indiana (12-0) are in their first-ever Big Ten Championship Game and take on the dominant #1 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0). Defending national champion OSU (-4.5) is 10-1-1 against the spread this season.