UCL Final Goals Angle That Could Carry Value

PSG have scored 33 goals so far in this year’s competition, leading the way in terms of total goal attempts and shots on target. Should we back goals?

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

History to Repeat Itself in the Champions League Final Goals Market?

The last six Champions League finals have seen two goals or fewer scored. In fact, four of them have seen just one. With so much at stake, these high-profile contests have been underwhelming match-ups in recent years.

However, it appears that the betting markets are underestimating how many goals will be scored in this year’s final between Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) and Inter.

They assume that there is a 55.55% chance that the match will see two or less goals. Based on this season’s Championship League data, PSG may score at least two goals in the final.

They’ve scored 33 goals in 16 games, which is an average of 2.07 goals per game, and conceded 15 goals in 16 games at an average of 0.94 goals per game. Using PSG’s data alone, a mean outcome would be a 2-1 win for PSG and a win for Over 2.5 Goals backers.

Inter’s goalscoring record is slightly lower than PSG’s in this season’s Champions League, as they have averaged 1.86 goals per game.

In their domestic campaigns, scoring goals hasn’t been an issue. Inter are the Serie A’s top scorers with 77 goals in 37 games. Meanwhile, PSG have scored 92 goals in 34 Ligue 1 games.

Therefore, there might be value in backing Over 2.5 Goals to occur for the first time in seven seasons in a Champions League Final.

Why Backing BTTs Feels a Value Play

Given that both sides have scored around two goals per game on average in the Champions League this season, we’d also suggest that backing Both Teams to Score (Yes) as a value move.

The betting markets currently estimate the probability of over 2.5 goals in the final is 57.14%. PSG have only failed to score in three of their 16 Champions League games this season, while Inter have drawn a blank only twice in this year’s campaign.

Inter’s stunning 7-6 aggregate win over Barcelona in the last four was proof that they are prepared to go toe-to-toe with teams, despite the size of the occasion.

Goalscorer Market Undervalues Ousmane Dembele

There could also be value in the Anytime Goalscorer market for this year’s Champions League Final. PSG’s Ousmane Dembele has been in the form of his life this season. He’s scored 21 goals in 29 Ligue 1 games and eight goals in 14 Champions League appearances.

PSG have made Dembele their focal point in attack since Kylian Mbappe is no longer at the Parc des Princes. His power and pace, coupled with the speed and trickery of Desire Doue and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, make PSG a formidable force in the final third.

Currently, the betting markets believe there is only a 35.71% chance of Dembele finding the net in the final. Given his 57.14% strike rate in the Champions League this season and his general form and confidence in front of goal – we believe this offers considerable value.

Lautaro Martinez is another player who is undervalued in the Anytime Goalscorer market. Although he has a strike rate of 69.23% in the Champions League this season, the betting markets give him a probability of just 31.25% to score in Munich.