Can Spurs turn their Europa League success into Premier League progress?
Tottenham have had a disappointing Premier League season last year, as they finished in 17th place, one spot above relegation. However, after winning the Europa League and with a new manager and some new players, they’re likely to move up the table this season. The key question is how far they can go.
Spurs have an implied probability of 1.96% to win the league title. This is a long-shot bet that comes around once every decade, similar to the Leicester City league win. There is some value in backing Tottenham to finish in the top six. This is a realistic bet, considering the probability of it happening is just under 40%.
However, there is significant value in a top-four finish. It’s worth noting that Opta Analyst indicate that Tottenham will finish the season in 14th place based on their supercomputer simulations. Spurs only finished fourth in 2.6% and sixth in 4.1% of their tests. While improvements are expected, bookmakers are suggesting a total points tally of between 45 and 55 points.
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | 51.00 | 1.96% |
| Top Four | 6.00 | 16.67% |
| Top Six | 2.63 | 38.10% |
All odds courtesy of 1xBet, correct at time of publication. May now differ.
Last season's table position: 17th
Opening five fixtures difficulty
| Date | Opponent | Result last season | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | Burnley (H) | N/A | 1 |
| 23/08/2025 | Manchester City (A) | 0-4 Win | 5 |
| 30/08/2025 | Bournemouth (H) | 2-2 | 3 |
| 13/09/2025 | West Ham (A) | 1-1 | 3 |
| 20/09/2025 | Brighton (A) | 3-2 Loss | 3 |
Tottenham's opening game against newly promoted Burnley will likely result in an easy victory for them. However, the situation would be different if they played at Turf Moor, but playing in North London should give them an advantage. Man City are going to be tough opponents, as they are unlike any opponent they faced last season. Therefore, it might be best to avoid betting on that match.
Spurs are likely to secure three points against Bournemouth and at West Ham, despite drawing last season’s games against them. However, their match against Brighton at the Amex Stadium will be difficult. While they could get a point there, especially because of Brighton’s player departures, it will be tough to clinch all three points.
Player focus
With club captain Heung-Min Son’s departure for the MLS, other Spurs players will have to take on the responsibility of scoring goals. As it stands, they have good attacking players in the squad. Mohammed Kudus, who joined from West Ham, can score goals and provide assists.
Brennan Johnson is always a dangerous player on the wing and has become crucial to the club. He scored the only and winning goal in the Europa League final to end Spurs’ trophyless streak.
However, their main striker, Dominic Solanke, may score many goals. He’s been impressive ever since he joined from Bournemouth, having scored nine goals in 27 appearances for Spurs. He is a prolific goal scorer, as he showed when he netted 19 goals in the 2023/24 season for the Cherries. If Spurs can keep him healthy, he will be crucial for scoring goals.
Featured stats
- Tottenham matches have featured the most goals in the Premier League last season. They see an average of 3.39 goals per game, which is well above the competition average of 2.93. Thomas Frank has since replaced Ange Postecoglou as Spurs boss, but their matches should still have plenty of goals. His Brentford side’s matches had an average of 3.24 goals, the fourth-most in the league.
- When playing at home, Tottenham conceded and scored an average of 1.84 goals in 2024/25. The BTTS - Yes market was very profitable, with goals scored in 74% of their home league matches. The market was also profitable in the 2023/24 season, with an even higher rate of 84%. Even with the departure of Ange Postecoglou, it will take time to adapt to a new system, which leaves room for this trend to continue.
- Only three teams have conceded more goals from set pieces than Tottenham’s 13 last season in the Premier League: Southampton (20), Wolves (20), and their North London neighbours, Arsenal (14). They also conceded four own goals, which is the highest in the league.
Value Outright
A top-six finish is certainly the best betting option for Tottenham. It will more than double your initial wager, which isn’t a bad return, considering the current unpredictability surrounding the Spurs. With a new manager and new players, it’s difficult to predict how their season will go. However, given the transfer activity of Man City, Liverpool, and Arsenal, it will be very difficult for Spurs to overcome them.
Even the likes of Man Utd have added quality and strength to their squad. With a 10.9%, Chelsea are probably the most likely to secure fourth spot again, according to Opta Analyst. Therefore, a top-six finish is a more realistic and valuable bet for Spurs.
- Best bet: Top 6 finish - 2.63 on 1xBet
Profitability
1X2 Market
| Season | Win P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L | Win ROI | Draw ROI | Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -11.10 | -17.51 | 20.92 | -29.2% | -46.1% | 55.0% |
| Home | -9.26 | -6.67 | 14.48 | -48.7% | -35.1% | 76.2% |
| Away | -1.84 | -10.83 | 6.44 | -9.7% | -57.0% | 33.9% |
| 2023/2024 | -2.28 | -10.85 | -3.45 | -6.0% | -28.6% | -9.1% |
| Home | 3.86 | -19.00 | 0.22 | 20.3% | -100.0% | 1.2% |
| Away | -6.14 | 8.15 | -3.67 | -32.3% | 42.9% | -19.3% |
| 2022/2023 | -1.56 | -16.59 | 2.81 | -4.1% | -43.7% | 7.4% |
| Home | 4.69 | -15.18 | 3.64 | 24.7% | -79.9% | 19.2% |
| Away | -6.25 | -1.41 | -0.83 | -32.9% | -7.4% | -4.4% |
Asian Handicap Market
| Season | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L | AH Win ROI | AH Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -10.30 | 7.04 | -27.1% | 18.5% |
| Home | -5.53 | 3.93 | -29.1% | 20.7% |
| Away | -4.78 | 3.11 | -25.1% | 16.3% |
| 2023/2024 | -2.07 | -1.12 | -5.4% | -2.9% |
| Home | -1.70 | 0.26 | -8.9% | 1.4% |
| Away | -0.37 | -1.38 | -1.9% | -7.3% |
| 2022/2023 | -1.63 | 0.37 | -4.3% | 1.0% |
| Home | 2.43 | -2.77 | 12.8% | -14.6% |
| Away | -4.06 | 3.14 | -21.4% | 16.5% |
Calculations are based on a single unit basis. Odds data taken from closing prices of 1xBet and was correct at time of collection.
When a club like Tottenham finishes in 17th place, the betting value comes from opposing them. In the Asian handicap market, which should be an even split, Spurs have lost 22.5 and pushed in 2.5 of their 38 fixtures. That’s the worst record in the Premier League. That’s also the worst performance for any Premier League team in that market in a single season since Chelsea’s 2022/23 campaign.
The 2023/24 season was probably the best for backing Spurs to secure a point away from home. It featured a return on investment of 42.9%, which is incredible. Betting on their home wins also provided a healthy return of 20.3%. Perhaps, those two markets are ideal to consider ahead of the new season.
Goals market
| Season | % of Over 2.5 | % of BTTS - Yes | % of scored the first goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 63% | 61% | 47% |
| 2023/2024 | 79% | 71% | 55% |
| 2022/2023 | 61% | 63% | 55% |
Betting on the BTTS market has mainly been successful in Tottenham’s games in the last few seasons. At least 61% of their league matches saw both teams score. They’re usually involved in high-scoring games, perhaps due to Ange Postecoglou’s tactics. With Thomas Frank now in charge, it may take a while for Spurs to adapt to new tactics. As a result, this trend may continue in the coming season.
Spurs scored 10 fewer goals last term than the previous season, which resulted in a goal difference of minus one. They exceeded their xGA, which has happened in two of the last three seasons. The only positive factor for Spurs is that they tend to go beyond their xG. They could well concede more than 60 goals again this season, so betting on them to concede or on the BTTS may be a good idea.
Team xG data
| Season | Goals scored | xG | Goals conceded | xGA | GD | xG difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 64 | 58.8 | 65 | 63.3 | -1 | -4.5 |
| 2023/2024 | 74 | 68.2 | 61 | 63.4 | +13 | +4.8 |
| 2022/2023 | 70 | 57 | 63 | 49.6 | +7 | +7.4 |
Source: FbREF