Carlos Corberan’s Valencia have picked up just 1 point from their opening 3 league games. They haven’t kept a clean sheet versus Barca since 2020.
Best bets for Valencia vs Barcelona
- Barcelona - Barcelona (half-time - full-time) at odds of 1.80 with Stake
- Raphinha anytime goalscorer at odds of 1.87 with Stake
- Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.85 with Stake
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Valencia 0-3 Barcelona
- Goalscorers prediction: Barcelona: Raphinha, Yamal, Gordon
Valencia host Barcelona at Mestalla on Sunday afternoon in Round 4 of La Liga. The unbeaten leaders visit Carlos Corberan’s side still searching for a first win.
VCF have taken just one point from their first three games. A goalless draw was followed by defeats to Real Betis and Deportivo La Coruña. They have scored just once.
Umar Sadiq netted that goal but now faces a hamstring lay-off until November. Diego López and Sergi Canós are long-term absentees. Pablo Maffeo and Guido Rodríguez are also unavailable.
By contrast, Barcelona have won all three, scoring 12 and conceding two. Raphinha leads the division's scoring charts with five goals. Lamine Yamal's strike against Rayo Vallecano was his 50th for the club.
Hansi Flick is without Frenkie de Jong, who is not expected back from a meniscus problem until next month. Roony Bardghji is sidelined long term with a cruciate injury. However, Gavi has returned to training.
Probable lineups for Valencia vs Barcelona
Valencia expected lineup: Dimitrievski, Arnau Martínez, Diakhaby, Tárrega, Jesús Vázquez, Rioja, Pepelu, Ugrinic, Sato, Guerra, Duro
Barcelona expected lineup: Joan García, Koundé, Cubarsí, Christensen, Espart, Bernal, Pedri, Lamine Yamal, Olmo, Gordon, Raphinha
Barca to lead at the break and see the game out
Barcelona have led at half-time in all three La Liga games this season. Raphinha put them ahead on 37 minutes against Athletic Club. They were in front inside 14 minutes at Elche.
Valencia have shown nothing to suggest they can hold out. They shipped two first-half goals in their most recent defeat at Deportivo La Coruña. Carlos Corberán's side have one point and one goal from three matches.
An implied probability of 55.6% looks generous for a team averaging four goals a game. By taking this market, you’re effectively doubling your potential return on a straight Barcelona win.
- Valencia vs Barcelona Bet 1: Barcelona - Barcelona (half-time - full-time) at odds of 1.80 with Stake
Raphinha to maintain his scoring run
Raphinha has five goals in three La Liga games. Nobody in the division has more. He scored twice at Elche and again against Athletic Club. His 4.10 expected goals is comfortably the highest at the club.
The armband has clearly agreed with him. Flick named the Brazilian as first captain after Ter Stegen and Araújo left. Raphinha also took and converted the penalty at Elche, which adds another route in.
An implied probability of 53.5% undersells a forward in such a rich vein of form. Valencia have conceded four times already and are also without several defenders.
- Valencia vs Barcelona Bet 2: Raphinha anytime goalscorer at odds of 1.87 with Stake
Head-to-head history at Mestalla points to 3 goals or fewer
Only five of the last 14 La Liga meetings at Mestalla have produced four goals or more. Valencia are likely to sit deep in a back-five and frustrate. They have scored once all season and have no reason to chase.
Corberán opened the campaign with a goalless draw against Celta Vigo. The obvious risk is Barcelona's tally of 12 goals in three matches.
Two of those games went beyond 3.5 goals. Barcelona also kept clean sheets in two of the three. Yet, an implied probability of 54.1% feels short for this fixture. With Barca likely to get a clean sheet, we’re effectively betting against them scoring four or more goals.
- Valencia vs Barcelona Bet 3: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.85 with Stake