Our betting expert shares his predictions for the final Championship game of the weekend. Home rivalry should make a difference in this South Coast Derby.
Best bets for Southampton vs Portsmouth
- BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.69 on Stake
- Anytime goalscorer - Cyle Larin at odds of 2.05 on Stake
- Half-time / full-time - Southampton / Southampton at odds of 2.19 on Stake
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Southampton 3-1 Portsmouth
- Goalscorers prediction: Southampton: Cyle Larin x2, Finn Azaz - Portsmouth: Colby Bishop
Southampton’s push for Premier League promotion resumes after a three-week international break. The Saints will be glad to get back in front of the St. Mary’s home crowd. Southampton have picked up four wins from four at home. Their issue has been on the road, where they have picked up two points from a possible 12.
Southampton have also been docked four points for ‘Spygate’. Tonda Eckert’s men would be higher in the table without the deduction. However, they’re three points off a play-off spot and five points behind second place. Another home win here in this South Coast Derby would be a boost.
Portsmouth have been struggling for consistency as well, and have won just two of their seven Championship fixtures so far. Pompey drew their last two games before the international break and head into this weekend in 19th place. They’re just three points clear of the relegation zone and will be keen to extend that gap.
A few consecutive defeats could leave John Mousinho’s men in serious danger of relegation. Portsmouth need to pick up more points to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle, starting with this trip to Southampton.
Probable lineups Southampton vs Portsmouth
Southampton expected lineup: Peretz, Bree, Wood, Schlotterbeck, Manning, Downes, Ward-Prowse, Matsuki, Azaz, Scienza, Larin
Portsmouth expected lineup: Bielica, Swanson, Dia, Shaughnessy, Meghoma, Pack, Shein, Kamara, Segecic, McQueen, Shade
Southampton’s scoring streak comes with a catch
Southampton are one of the best attacking sides in the division. They’ve scored 19 goals in eight league matches. The Saints scored just three goals fewer than current top scorers West Ham. However, no team has scored more than Southampton’s 12 home goals. We expect the home side to get onto
The good news for the visitors is that the hosts have been quite poor in defence. Eckert’s troops have conceded at least once in every league match this season. Portsmouth have scored four goals in their three away matches, giving them reason to believe they can find the net again.
Both teams score in 67% of Portsmouth’s away games, and in each of Southampton’s home fixtures. Three of the last five head-to-heads have also seen this bet land.
- Southampton vs Portsmouth Betting Tip 1: BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.69 on Stake
Can’t keep Cyle down
Southampton are the Championship’s second-highest scorers, with 10 different players finding the net in their first eight league matches. However, Cyle Larin has stood out above the rest.
The Canadian forward is enjoying his football at the moment and tops the scoring charts in the Championship. His seven goals so far account for 37% of Southampton’s total. For context, Larin scored eight goals in 18 league appearances last term.
Larin has now scored three goals in as many games for the club, and his confidence is high. He has six goals in his last eight matches for Southampton, which means he is the man to back to score this weekend.
- Southampton vs Portsmouth Betting Tip 2: Anytime goalscorer - Cyle Larin at odds of 2.05 on Stake
Saints seeking an early advantage
Southampton boast a 100% record at home, winning all four of their Championship outings at St. Mary’s. Before their defeat to Wrexham last time out, the Saints were on a six-game undefeated run in the league. Additionally, they haven’t lost to Portsmouth since a 2010 FA Cup clash.
Pompey have lost three of their seven matches so far, winning and drawing two each. Their three away games have brought a win, a draw and a defeat. Portsmouth have gone into the half-time break on the losing side in 43% of their league fixtures.
The home side could make an early impact, having led at half-time in three of their four home matches. Overall, they’ve led at half-time in 62% of their league matches, making another half-time lead a possibility. With 60% of their home goals coming in the second period, they could extend any first-half lead or maintain it until full-time.
- Southampton vs Portsmouth Betting Tip 3: Half-time / full-time - Southampton / Southampton at odds of 2.19 on Stake