Francesco Farioli's Porto have won all 4 domestic games without conceding. They haven't beaten City in 4 European meetings, drawing 1 and losing 3.
Best bets for Porto vs Manchester City
- Manchester City to win & Both teams to score at odds of 3.25 with Parimatch
- Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer at odds of 1.75 with Parimatch
- Rayan Cherki to score or assist at odds of 2.10 with Parimatch
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Porto 1-2 Manchester City
- Goalscorers prediction: Porto: Gomes - Manchester City: Haaland, Semenyo
Porto host Manchester City at the Estádio do Dragão on Wednesday. Both clubs open their Champions League league-phase campaigns in Portugal.
Francesco Farioli's champions have won all four Primeira Liga games without conceding. They also lifted the Supertaça by beating Torreense. Porto have found the net in their last ten matches. At home, they were unbeaten in all six European games last season.
Samu Aghehowa has been unavailable and was last season's leading scorer with 20 goals. Gabri Veiga has three league goals already. This will be Farioli's first Champions League match.
Enzo Maresca has won all three Premier League games since replacing Pep Guardiola. City beat Bournemouth 2-1 and then thrashed Crystal Palace 4-1. They needed a late goal to beat newly promoted Coventry in their least convincing display of the season so far.
Rodri joined Barcelona for £65.4m this summer, leaving City without a key midfielder. Additionally, Jérémy Doku is nursing a calf problem. Erling Haaland and Rayan Cherki have two league goals each in just three games.
Probable lineups for Porto vs Manchester City
FC Porto Expected Lineup: Diogo Costa, Alberto Costa, Kiwior, Bednarek, Sanusi, Rosario, Froholdt, Gabri Veiga, Pepê, André Silva, William Gomes
Manchester City Expected Lineup: Donnarumma, Khusanov, Dias, Guéhi, Gvardiol, Anderson, O'Reilly, Foden, Cherki, Semenyo, Haaland
City to win without a clean sheet
Premier League clubs remain the dominant force in Europe. City have won their opening Champions League fixture in six of the last seven seasons. They are also unbeaten in six away matches across all competitions.
However, Porto offer real resistance. Farioli's side have scored in ten successive games. Additionally, they went unbeaten in six European home fixtures last season.
Maresca's defence has already conceded twice in two league outings. That combination suggests goals at both ends. An implied probability of 30.77% seems generous for a City win with both teams scoring.
Porto vs Manchester City Bet 1: Manchester City to win & Both teams to score at odds of 3.25 with Parimatch
Value on Haaland based on UCL form
Haaland has started the season in his usual form, scoring twice in two Premier League appearances. He has taken ten shots, with five on target. City continue to create plenty of chances for him, making the Norwegian their obvious focal point.
Porto have not conceded in four league games this season, which may deter some from backing Haaland on Wednesday. However, City are a different test to Moreirense or Arouca.
Haaland has scored against far stronger defences in this competition. He averaged an 80% strike rate in last season’s UCL. An implied probability of 57.14% may feel short, but it’s still well below that 80% figure.
Porto vs Manchester City Bet 2: Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer at odds of 1.75 with Parimatch
Cherki to make an impact again
Cherki has been the standout performer of City's 100% start to the Premier League campaign. He scored twice at Selhurst Park in City’s rampant 4-1 win.
In total, he’s created seven chances in just 109 minutes of football. That is an excellent rate of chance creation. Maresca has relied on him heavily in the opening weeks.
Porto will sit deep and invite pressure at the Dragão. Cherki thrives in these congested areas. He should see plenty of the ball in the final third. His early-season form makes the score or assist market an appealing option at a 47.62% implied probability.
Porto vs Manchester City Bet 3: Rayan Cherki to score or assist at odds of 2.10 with Parimatch