Our betting expert expects Nigeria to make a strong start and take an important step towards AFCON 2027 with a home win.
Best bets for Nigeria vs Madagascar
- Which team to score - Nigeria only at odds of 1.88 on Parimatch
- Three-way handicap - Nigeria to win with a -1 handicap at odds of 1.79 on Parimatch
- Totals - Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.03 on Parimatch
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Nigeria 2-0 Madagascar
- Goalscorers prediction: Nigeria: Ademola Lookman, Alex Iwobi
After taking a backseat while the world watched the global showpiece in North America, Nigeria are back in action. The Super Eagles were bitterly disappointed not to have secured a place at the World Cup, but that’s now in the past.
The African giants must focus on qualifying for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations to be held in Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda.
Co-hosts Tanzania will qualify automatically regardless of where they finish in Group L. As a result, there’s only one qualifying place up for grabs in this group. Manager Eric Chelle knows there is no margin for error in a match they’re expected to win.
Chelle knows there are no straightforward matches in African football. Madagascar missed out on the last three editions of AFCON, but they are a dangerous outfit. They went all the way to the quarter-finals in their maiden tournament back in 2019. The Barea shocked the Super Eagles in that tournament, beating them 2-0 in the group stage.
Corentin Martins is now at the helm, and the former Libya and Mauritania coach brings a wealth of experience. He guided the latter to the 2019 and 2021 AFCON tournaments. The Barea fans expect him to deliver for Madagascar.
Probable lineups for Nigeria vs Madagascar
Nigeria expected lineup: Okoye, Aina, Ajayi, Bassey, Onyemaechi, Ndidi, F. Onyeka, Lookman, Iwobi, Chukwueze, Awoniyi
Madagascar expected lineup: Dupire, Kari, Fontaine, Tremoulet, Acapandie, Ilaimaharitra, Raveloson, Randriamalala, Ponti, Caddy, Abdallah
Hosts will be hard to break down
The atmosphere at the Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo should be hostile for the visitors. Based on their recent performances, Madagascar might struggle to get going.
In a friendly against Morocco before the World Cup, Madagascar retained 30% possession and managed just two shots. The Barea blanked in that match. That’s an example of how difficult it is against tougher opponents. Their xG (expected goals) in their last outing was just 0.25, and the majority of those players are in the squad for this Nigeria match.
To put their defence into perspective, the Super Eagles prevented their opponents from scoring in each of their last five matches against African sides. That will encourage Chelle, in the hope that his men can replicate that type of form to kick-start their AFCON qualifying journey. Additionally, each of the previous three recorded head-to-heads saw the winning side keep a clean sheet.
- Nigeria vs Madagascar Betting Tip 1: Which team to score - Nigeria only at odds of 1.88 on Parimatch
Super Eagles are flying
Nigeria’s most recent clash was a 2-1 friendly defeat against Portugal. That defeat ended an unbeaten run of 12 games inside regulation time. The West African side put together a five-game win streak at last year’s AFCON and left the competition without losing in normal time. They’re also playing in front of their adoring fans in Uyo, an advantage that they’re likely to capitalise on.
In contrast, Madagascar have had a mixed bag of results recently, winning two, losing two, and drawing one of their last five. It highlights the inconsistency of Martins’ side.
The hosts hope Madagascar are as vulnerable defensively as they were against Morocco and Mali, when they conceded four goals in each match. Chelle’s men won two of the three head-to-heads, with both finishing 2-0 to the Super Eagles. For these reasons, we’re leaning towards the same outcome on Friday evening.
- Nigeria vs Madagascar Betting Tip 2: Three-way handicap - Nigeria to win with a -1 handicap at odds of 1.79 on Parimatch
A history of low-scoring meetings
African football is fairly low-scoring. That’s a general rule, but it also applies to matches involving these two sides. Each of the last four matches Nigeria have played against African opposition went under 2.5 goals. Two of Madagascar’s last three outings against African teams also went below 2.5.
With the visitors clearly struggling in front of goal, it’s difficult to see more than a couple of goals being scored on Friday.
The head-to-head record offers additional support to the theory that this match-up will be low-scoring. All three matches finished with exactly two goals. We expect more of the same in Uyo in this opening AFCON qualifier.
- Nigeria vs Madagascar Betting Tip 3: Totals - Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.03 on Parimatch