Our betting expert expects Manchester United to continue with their upward trajectory and beat the Italian club, now managed by their former boss.
Best bets for Manchester United vs AC Milan
- 1x2 - Manchester United at odds of 1.80 onStake
- BTTS - No at odds of 2.33 on Stake
- Overs/unders - Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.34 on Stake
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Manchester United 2-0 AC Milan
- Goalscorers prediction: Manchester United: Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha
It’s been a relatively positive pre-season campaign for Manchester United. The Red Devils lost only their first friendly match out of five. This should give them plenty of confidence heading into their final outing. Michael Carrick’s men have shown genuine improvement under his leadership. They won five of the last six Premier League games last season to finish third.
Still, United fans want to see their team challenging for the title rather than settling for a place in the Champions League. Carrick has made some shrewd signings, particularly in midfield, which is where he thinks they were lacking last term. Now, the Red Devils will get a chance to test themselves against their former head coach, Ruben Amorim.
The Portuguese mentor departed the club after a string of poor results, including getting knocked out of the League Cup by Grimsby Town. Amorim has now taken over the hot seat from Massimiliano Allegri, who could only help Milan qualify for the Europa League. Improvement on their fifth-place finish in Serie A is the primary goal for AC Milan, but they need to pass this test first.
Amorim will desperately want to get one over his former employers. That said, players such as Kobbie Mainoo will be keen to prove a point against their former head coach.
Probable lineups for Manchester United vs AC Milan
Manchester United expected lineup: Lammens, Mazraoui, Maguire, Heaven, Shaw, Mainoo, Santos, Amad, Zirkzee, Dorgu, Mbeumo
AC Milan expected lineup: Torriani, Terracciano, De Winter, Pavlovic, Chukwueze, Modric, Comotto, Estupinan, Leao, Loftus-Cheek, Camarda
The Carrick effect
Since former midfielder Michael Carrick took charge of Manchester United, the results have gone in his favour. He appears to have quickly won over the dressing room. Players have shown a strong willingness to work for him. Only one defeat in five pre-season matches is a decent return, with two ending in victory after 90 minutes.
Milan have had a tough time in their build-up to competitive action. Amorim is still searching for a first win as Milan boss, as all three friendlies have seen them winless. Their previous outing was against English opposition in Chelsea, which they lost 3-0.
The Serie A club haven’t beaten United in their last six head-to-heads, including club friendlies. There were three stalemates in that run in 90 minutes, while United secured the win in the other three meetings. As a result, we’re backing Carrick’s side to leave Poland with a victory and head into the new Premier League season full of confidence.
Manchester United vs AC Milan Betting Tip 1: 1x2 - Manchester United at odds of 1.80 onStake
United’s defence could expose Milan’s attack
The Manchester outfit haven’t had much trouble in finding the back of the net, having blanked only once in pre-season. They’ve scored nine goals in their five matches. As more first-team players run out, their goal threat will rise. United were on course for a clean sheet against Leeds before a defensive error allowed their opponents to equalise.
The primary issue for the Italian side is their lack of efficiency in front of goal. Against Chelsea, the Rossoneri managed an xG of 0.29. Milan didn’t register a single shot on target, which is a concern for Amorim’s men.
Last season, Milan saw just 47% of their Serie A matches produce goals at both ends. On the road, that percentage dropped to 42%. United will certainly be stronger, especially at the back, which could halt Milan’s forward momentum.
The last meeting between these teams produced a goal for just one team. Consequently, this friendly fixture is likely to finish the same.
- Manchester United vs AC Milan Betting Tip 2: BTTS - No at odds of 2.33 onStake
A low-scoring United victory
The Red Devils should be the better team on the day and leave Poland with a victory. However, it is unlikely to be as convincing as their win over Rosenborg. Amorim’s five-man defence focuses on being defensively solid, and his troops could set out to frustrate United. If they’re successful, they can limit the damage, just like Leeds did last time out.
United could only manage an xG of 1.17 on Wednesday night, despite recording 15 shots. The chances they were creating weren’t as clear-cut as they would’ve liked. Each of United’s last two matches produced fewer than three goals.
Three of the last four head-to-heads between these two sides have produced two goals or fewer. We expect a similar outcome here on Saturday, where the scoreboard won’t rise above two goals.
- Manchester United vs AC Milan Betting Tip 3: Overs/unders - Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.34 onStake