Liverpool have been vulnerable defensively. That could suit Atlético, with Julian Alvarez set to return to the side.
Best bets for Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid
- Draw or Atlético (Double Chance) at odds of 2.15 with Parimatch
- Alexander Isak anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.10 with Parimatch
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.37 with Parimatch
- Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Atlético Madrid, Goalscorers prediction: Liverpool: Isak - Atlético Madrid: Alvarez
Our analysis: Form of both teams
Liverpool host Atlético on Wednesday night in a repeat of last season’s Matchday 1 fixture. The Reds won that game 3-2.
Andoni Iraola’s men are still a work in progress. They’ve picked up five points from their first three Premier League games, conceding two goals apiece in their first two matches. Their latest 2-0 win at Ipswich boosted confidence, with Alexander Isak netting a brace at Portman Road.
The Swedish striker is much sharper after an injury-hit first season at Anfield. Iraola still has Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni unavailable. Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo were also not registered for UCL action.
Diego Simeone’s Atlético arrive on Merseyside still reeling from a 3-0 loss at Athletic Bilbao. Nevertheless, they sit sixth in La Liga, with seven points from their first four games.
Simeone is set to hand Julian Alvarez his first start of the season, while Cristian Romero is also pushing for his first start since joining the club. The Argentine is expected to remain at Atlético until at least the January transfer window. Alexander Sorloth (thigh) and Arnau Ortiz (suspended) will miss Wednesday’s game.
Probable lineups for Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid
Liverpool Expected Lineup: Alisson, Kerkez, Araújo, Jacquet, van Dijk, Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Barcola, Wirtz, Gakpo, Isak
Atlético Madrid Expected Lineup: Oblak, Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo, Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Lookman, Baena, Álvarez
Atlético can expose Liverpool’s defence
Liverpool have been vulnerable defensively under Iraola. They conceded four goals in their first two league games, drawing both matches. Their defence is still taking shape as the season progresses. Ronald Araújo is filling in at right-back, with Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni injured.
Atlético are well equipped to exploit Liverpool’s defensive weaknesses. Simeone's side won 3-2 at Anfield in 2019/20 and recovered from 2-0 down here last season.
The market gives Atlético a 46.5% implied probability of avoiding defeat, which seems low based on the evidence. They have never won a league phase game against English opposition, but a draw would still be enough to land this bet.
- Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Bet 1: Draw or Atlético (Double Chance) at odds of 2.15 with Parimatch
Isak is back among the goals
Alexander Isak now has three goals in three Premier League games this season. He scored twice inside nine minutes at Ipswich last Friday, with Cody Gakpo assisting all three of his goals.
That is a big improvement from his debut season, when he scored four goals in 22 appearances. He appears fitter and sharper than at any point since joining Liverpool.
Atlético's back line is also unsettled after shipping three goals at Bilbao. The obvious warning is his European record of one goal in 13 Champions League appearances. Yet, an implied 47.6% probability for Isak to score seems low given his short-term form.
- Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Bet 2: Alexander Isak anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.10 with Parimatch
Chance creation remains the Reds’ problem area
Liverpool sit 19th in the Premier League for big chances created with four in three games. By contrast, Brighton sit at the top of the pile with 15 big chances created in three games.
That is a strikingly low number for a side with this attack. Pablo Barrios and Morten Hjulmand will screen the spaces that Florian Wirtz wants to occupy. Jan Oblak remains a reliable presence behind the backline too.
Simeone will happily make Anfield a slow, narrow contest. Atlético have also scored seven in their last four league games, so they still carry a threat, especially with Alvarez expected to return to the attack. However, with the under 2.5 line priced at an implied probability of 42.2%, we think this is a generous entry point.
- Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.37 with Parimatch