Our betting expert expects Lazio to maintain their strong start and beat AC Milan in this thrilling league encounter.
Best bets for Lazio vs AC Milan
- BTTS - No at odds of 1.80 on 1xBet
- 1x2 - Lazio at odds of 3.15 on 1xBet
- Anytime goalscorer - Davide Frattesi at odds of 6.40 on 1xBet
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Lazio 1-0 AC Milan
- Goalscorers prediction: Lazio: Davide Frattesi
After three seasons outside the Serie A top three, Lazio have made a strong start this season. The Biancocelesti finished ninth in the division under Maurizio Sarri’s guidance. However, a change in management over the summer seems to have worked. Gennaro Gattuso joined the club after a stint as the national head coach.
His first competitive game in charge didn’t go his way, as Lazio were eliminated from the Coppa Italia by Serie B side Mantova. Yet, the league campaign has been far brighter after the Eagles won all three of their Serie A fixtures. They head into this crunch match against AC Milan on the back of an impressive 2-1 away win at Udinese.
Lazio enter this matchday ranked third in the division. They’re level on points with Roma and Inter Milan, who sit first and second, respectively. Gattuso will be keen to secure a win this weekend against a team expected to challenge for the title. AC Milan have also gone through a managerial change, with Ruben Amorim replacing Massimiliano Allegri.
Amorim had mixed results during pre-season, but things have improved considerably since the league campaign began. The Rossoneri dropped their first points over the weekend when they were held to a 1-1 draw at Juventus. Milan remain in the Scudetto race, but they need to return to winning ways here.
The visitors are two points behind the top three, including Saturday’s hosts. Three points here are crucial to keep up with the early leaders. With both sides yet to taste defeat in the league, the stakes are much higher in this clash.
Probable lineups for Lazio vs AC Milan
Lazio expected lineup: Mandas, Floriani, Doekhi, Provstgaard, Tavares, Frattesi, Rovella, Taylor, Isaksen, Zaccagni, Pinamonti
AC Milan expected lineup: Maignan, Gila, De Winter, Pavlovic, Moreira, Modric, Musah, Estupinan, Rabiot, Saelemaekers, Ramos
Lazio have the edge in defence
Gattuso’s teams tend to be well organised defensively and limit the opposition’s chances. They’ve already kept two clean sheets across their last three league matches. Even against Udinese last weekend, Lazio limited their opponents to an xG (expected goals) of 0.85, compared to their own of 1.83.
That’s an indication of how they limit their opponents and prevent them from creating clear chances. By contrast, AC Milan struggled heavily to create much against Juventus, despite scoring once. The Rossoneri could only muster an xG of 0.11, suggesting they may struggle to create chances again this weekend.
This fixture has rarely delivered a feast of goals. The corresponding game last season finished 1-0 to Lazio. Each of the last three head-to-heads produced goals for just one side. Seven of the previous 10 meetings saw only one team find the back of the net, an outcome that’s highly likely in this match.
- Lazio vs AC Milan Betting Tip 1: BTTS - No at odds of 1.80 on 1xBet
Lazio can defy the market
Bookmakers have marked AC Milan as clear favourites to win the game on Saturday. However, Lazio’s strong start under Gattuso suggests there could be value in backing the hosts. Lazio own a 100% league record after three games. Playing at home gives them an added advantage and could help them secure another win.
AC Milan could only draw away to Juventus, which highlights some of their struggles on the road. The Rossoneri have also failed to beat Lazio across their last three meetings. Their previous win came in 2024. The hosts have enjoyed more recent success in this fixture, which gives them an edge heading into Saturday’s game.
Lazio have won the last two meetings. They have also won three of their last five at home, with one ending in a draw. Additionally, they’ve also won three of the last four head-to-heads, home or away. With the last two meetings finishing 1-0 to Lazio, it’s worth backing them to do it again.
- Lazio vs AC Milan Betting Tip 2: 1x2 - Lazio at odds of 3.15 on 1xBet
Backing the man in form
Usually, it’s easy to get behind a forward, especially one who’s in top form. Yet, for the goalscorer bet this week, we’ve gone to a Lazio midfielder, and with good reason. Davide Frattesi has been efficient in front of goal for his team this season, and is already leading their scoring charts.
Frattesi has scored three in a row, one in each league game so far, accounting for 75% of Lazio’s Serie A goals. In contrast, when he was at Inter last season, he didn’t score a single goal in 22 appearances. He has made a strong start at Lazio, scoring in three consecutive games, which makes him a player to watch.
His best-ever goalscoring tally was eight with Monza in Serie B back in 2020/21. He’s already almost halfway to that total after just three matches. Last time out, Frattesi recorded an xG of 0.70, the highest for any player in the match. If he can maintain this form, the midfielder will be one to watch in this fixture.
- Lazio vs AC Milan Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Davide Frattesi at odds of 6.40 on 1xBet