Both teams have found the net in 4 of their last 5 match-ups. Yet, La Roja arrive in north-west London on an impressive 18-game unbeaten streak.
Best bets for England vs Spain
- Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20 with Parimatch
- Spain (Draw no bet) at odds of 1.70 with Parimatch
- Mikel Oyarzabal anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.50 with Parimatch
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: England 1-2 Spain
- Goalscorers prediction: England: Kane - Spain: Oyarzabal, Yamal
England and Spain kick off Group A3 of the 2026/27 Nations League with an eagerly anticipated encounter at Wembley on Sunday. It’s their first meeting since the Euro 2024 final in Berlin, which La Roja won 2-1 on the night.
England eventually finished third at the 2026 World Cup, which was a solid achievement considering their difficult route to the latter stages. Despite the disappointment surrounding Thomas Tuchel’s decision-making in the Argentina defeat, the German boss has won four of his last five matches in charge.
Tuchel’s squad have been gutted in the days leading up to this Spain game. The likes of Declan Rice, Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford and Kobbie Mainoo all withdrew from the squad on Monday. Everton’s James Garner and Nottingham Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White have since been drafted in.
Luis de la Fuente’s Spanish side arrive as world champions. Ferran Torres settled a tense 2026 World Cup final against Argentina in extra time back in July. De la Fuente has kept the core of that squad together for the Nations League.
Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Pedri are all named in his travelling party this weekend. Dean Huijsen returns, and Fermin Lopez is also recalled to the squad. The Spaniards haven’t tasted defeat in any competition since June 2025.
Probable lineups for England vs Spain
England expected lineup: Pickford, Alexander-Arnold, Konsa, Guéhi, Hall, Anderson, Bellingham, Saka, Rogers, Gordon, Kane
Spain expected lineup: Simón, Porro, Huijsen, Laporte, Cucurella, Zubimendi, Rodri, Pedri, Yamal, Oyarzabal, Williams
This match-up often delivers goals at both ends
This fixture tends to produce goals. 4 of the last 5 meetings have seen both sides score. In those same 4 games, all matches finished with 3+ goals scored too. With an 80% strike rate for this in recent years, it’s surprising to be able to back this scenario at a 45% implied probability on Sunday.
The only exception came in 2015 when the Spaniards won a friendly clash 2-0. There’s no doubt that both teams carry serious attacking threats. Yamal and Williams are dangerous for the visitors from the flanks, while Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka are proven goal threats for England.
Both sides press high and commit full-backs forward as much as possible. It’s hard to see either side sitting back in this one. There are more opportunities to win Nations League games in the coming days if they lose.
- England vs Spain Bet 1: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20 with Parimatch
Backing the world champions with cover
World champions Spain are unbeaten in their last 18 matches. They passed the stiffest test of their credentials against Lionel Messi and Argentina in July. The fact that de la Fuente has kept faith with the bulk of his World Cup-winning side speaks volumes.
By taking the Draw No Bet angle, we can cover our stake in the event England put up a fight and manage to share the spoils. However, the absences of Rice, Palmer, Rashford, Mainoo and Tino Livramento will all have an effect.
Rice’s absence is the most damaging one. England have no alternative defensive midfielder to screen the back four in the same natural way that the Arsenal ace does. By removing the draw from the equation, the market gives Spain a 58.80% chance of winning. Yet, England’s weakened roster means this should surely be higher. This is comfortably the value bet from this weekend’s England vs Spain predictions.
- England vs Spain Bet 2: Spain (Draw no bet) at odds of 1.70 with Parimatch
Oyarzabal saves his best for the big occasions
Real Sociedad’s Mikel Oyarzabal is the man for the big occasion. Oyarzabal scored the 86th-minute winner for La Roja in the Euro 2024 final against England. He comes face-to-face with the Three Lions again on Sunday at Wembley.
Oyarzabal has scored 30 goals in 61 appearances for Spain. That’s an outstanding strike rate of almost 50% for a striker that’s not renowned for being a natural finisher.
Yamal and Williams also play an important role in creating opportunities, with their aggressive pressing helping generate plenty of shooting opportunities for Oyarzabal. He hasn’t started the domestic season in best form, failing to score in 7 La Liga games. However, with the market implying a probability of just 40%, his international record may be overlooked.
- England vs Spain Bet 3: Mikel Oyarzabal anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.50 with Parimatch