42% of the last 24 meetings between these fierce rivals has ended in a stalemate. Will the pattern continue again with both teams lacking confidence?
Best bets for Brighton vs Crystal Palace
- Match drawn at odds of 3.40 with 1xBet
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.95 with 1xBet
- Crystal Palace (1st goal) at odds of 2.37 with 1xBet
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace
- Goalscorers prediction – Brighton: Welbeck – Crystal Palace: Johnson
Crystal Palace travel to fierce rivals Brighton & Hove Albion on Sunday, aiming to end a run of nine games without victory.
Brighton have been struggling recently as well, falling to 13th place in the EPL standings, just two points and two places above Palace. Albion have secured just four points from their last four games. They have established themselves as the league’s draw specialists, recording ten draws in 24 matches.
The huge disparity between Brighton’s home and away form has been Fabian Hurzeler’s biggest issue this season. Albion average 1.75 points per home game, compared with just 0.83 points per away game. Moreover, they have scored in 11 of their 12 home games this season.
Crystal Palace are currently navigating a period of significant uncertainty. Oliver Glasner has confirmed that he will depart this summer, and Jean-Philippe Mateta has expressed his desire to leave the club. Consequently, the Eagles are anything but soaring currently. In fact, they are just three places above the relegation zone and nine points ahead of 18th-placed West Ham.
Palace’s away form has been less of an issue this season. They average 1.42 points per away game, versus a solitary point per game at Selhurst Park. Additionally, Palace have scored first in 58% of their away games. However, they do have a 0.25 points-per-game average when conceding first on the road.
Probable lineups for Brighton vs Crystal Palace
Brighton & Hove Albion Expected Lineup: Verbruggen, Kadıoğlu, van Hecke, De Cuyper, Dunk, Gross, Baleba, Ayari, Mitoma, Minteh, Welbeck
Crystal Palace Expected Lineup: Henderson, Richards, Lacroix, Riad, Munoz, Mitchell, Lerma, Hughes, Sarr, Johnson, Pino
Serious value on a draw
Brighton have drawn six of their last ten EL games. Moreover, 42% of their last 24 match-ups with Palace have also ended in a tie. That’s why it’s surprising that the betting markets suggest there is only a 29.41% chance of another draw on Sunday.
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Both clubs have struggled to win recently, with each side securing only one league victory since 7 December. This lack of form explains their descent into the bottom half of the table. Although Albion’s home form remains stable, recent results might lead them to adopt a more cautious approach on Sunday.
In recent weeks, Brighton have secured home draws against a newly promoted Sunderland side and free-scoring Bournemouth. In theory, Palace should be an easier proposition, but derby matches tend to encourage lower sides to improve their performance significantly.
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace Bet 1: Match drawn at odds of 3.40 with 1xBet
Goals and entertainment value hard to come by
Palace average just 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per away game. They have also kept a clean sheet in 33% of their away matches, which is higher than the league average of 22% for away teams.
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Brighton’s defensive record at the Amex Stadium has been even more impressive. The Seagulls concede an average of 1.08 goals per home match, which is better than the league average of 1.23 for home teams.
Their last meeting at Selhurst Park last November resulted in a goalless draw. Six of the last nine meetings involving these teams have featured two or fewer goals. That’s why there is value in backing Under 2.5 goals at a probability of only 51.28%.
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.95 with 1xBet
Backing the Eagles to score first
Since Crystal Palace have scored first away from home in 58% of their matches this season, they are expected to start strongly here. The betting markets indicate that they have only a 42.19% chance of scoring first.
That’s partly due to Albion scoring first in 58% of their home matches as well. However, the Eagles have spent only 17% of their total away minutes trailing their opponents this season. Glasner’s team is certainly built around a solid defence and counter-attack, which explains why their away form is far superior to their home form.
Palace scored first within the first 27 minutes in their last trip to the Amex Stadium. In fact, they scored three goals before Albion replied late on in a 3-1 defeat.
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace Bet 3: Crystal Palace (1st goal) at odds of 2.37 with 1xBet