Niko Kovac's Dortmund have won all 3 games since losing the Super Cup. Inigo Perez's Villarreal have 2 points from 4 La Liga games and are winless.
Best bets for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal
- Borussia Dortmund to win at odds of 1.75 with 1xBet
- Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.15 with 1xBet
- Serhou Guirassy first goalscorer at odds of 3.80 with 1xBet
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Villarreal
- Goalscorers prediction: Borussia Dortmund: Guirassy, Bellingham, Nmecha - Villarreal: Perez
Borussia Dortmund host Villarreal at Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday. Both clubs open their Champions League league-phase campaigns in Germany.
Niko Kovač's side have won three straight since losing the Super Cup to Bayern. They beat Hamburger SV 2-0 and then came from two down to win 3-2 at Hoffenheim. They also thrashed HEBC Hamburg 5-0 in the DFB-Pokal.
Nico Schlotterbeck, Emre Can and Ramy Bensebaini are among six absentees. Filippo Mané is also a doubt at centre-back. Serhou Guirassy leads the line again. He scored twice against Villarreal last season.
Íñigo Pérez's side are winless in four La Liga games. They have collected just two points and lost 3-2 at home to Deportivo on Saturday.
Nicolas Pépé scored in that defeat and offers their main spark. Georges Mikautadze and Gerard Moreno provide alternatives up front. Dortmund beat Villarreal 4-0 here last season.
Probable lineups for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal
Borussia Dortmund expected lineup: Kobel, Gadou, Anton, Mané, Ryerson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Svensson, Karetsas, Beier, Guirassy
Villarreal expected lineup: Luiz Júnior, Freeman, Renato Veiga, Logan Costa, Cardona, Pépé, Pape Gueye, Saliba, Moleiro, Ayoze Pérez, Gerard Moreno
Recent form points one way
Dortmund arrive on the back of three straight wins. They have taken maximum points from their opening two Bundesliga games. Villarreal are winless in four La Liga matches. Íñigo Pérez's side have managed just two points all season.
They also conceded three at home to Deportivo on Saturday. Signal Iduna Park has been a fortress in Europe. Dortmund have lost just two of their last 23 Champions League games there.
They beat this same Villarreal side 4-0 at home last season. An implied probability of 57.14% looks fair given the gulf in confidence between the two sides.
- Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Bet 1: Borussia Dortmund to win at odds of 1.75 with 1xBet
Goals have flowed freely for both
Dortmund have found the net freely across all competitions. They scored twice against Hamburger SV and found the net three times at Hoffenheim. A 5-0 Pokal win over HEBC Hamburg came in between.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have struggled to keep opponents out. Their last game finished 3-2 to Deportivo at home. That is five goals in a single afternoon.
Dortmund racked up 4.03 expected goals in last season's 4-0 meeting. Villarreal will have to chase the game if they fall behind, as expected. An implied probability of 46.51% looks generous based on the current evidence.
- Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Bet 2: Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.15 with 1xBet
Guirassy remains BVB’s main focal point
Guirassy remains the focal point of Dortmund. He started both Bundesliga games and led the line at Hoffenheim. He also scored twice against Villarreal in last season's 4-0 UCL win.
That is the clearest evidence available for this market. Villarreal conceded three at home to Deportivo on Saturday. Their defence has been stretched throughout the opening month.
Dortmund should start fast in front of the Yellow Wall. The first goalscorer market is always a volatile one, but an implied probability of 26.32% is still generous for backing their star striker. This looks like the genuine value bet from our trio of Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal predictions.
- Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Bet 3: Serhou Guirassy first goalscorer at odds of 3.80 with 1xBet