This weekend promises to be the first test of character for Hansi Flick’s side this term. Can they instantly shrug off their El Clásico loss to Real?
Best bets for Barcelona vs Alaves
- Barcelona to win and Both teams to score at odds of 2.25 with Stake
- Under 3.5 goals at odds of 2.40 with Stake
- Karim Adeyemi anytime goalscorer at odds of 1.80 with Stake
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Barcelona 2-1 Alaves
- Goalscorers prediction: Barcelona: Adeyemi, Jesus - Alaves: Boyé
Barcelona still lead the way at the top of La Liga, with 27 points from ten games. However, Alaves travel to the Nou Camp buoyed by the fact Hansi Flick’s men have lost their last two games on home turf.
Barca fell to a 4-2 defeat at the hands of PSG in the Champions League. That loss was followed up by a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Real Madrid in the first El Clásico of 2026/27.
It’s possible that Barca boss Hansi Flick switches up his starting XI for the visit of Alaves on Sunday. With a tricky Champions League game with Aston Villa looming on Tuesday, Flick may freshen up his forward line this weekend.
He’s also without the services of five first-team players due to injury, including Eric Garcia, Dani Olmo and Andreas Christensen.
Quique Sanchez Flores’ Alaves side have started the new La Liga campaign in encouraging fashion. They sit seventh after the first ten games, with 12 points and 14 goals scored.
However, the last five games have been less convincing, with just two points from a possible 15. Alaves have won just twice at the Nou Camp in the league since the turn of the new millennium.
Probable lineups for Barcelona vs Alaves
Barcelona expected lineup: Joan Garcia, Cancelo, Cubarsi, Gerard Martin, Balde, Rodri, Pedri, Fermin Lopez, Jesus, Gordon, Adeyemi
Alaves expected lineup: Sivera, Angel Perez, Tenaglia, Koski, Valentini, Rebbach, Pablo Ibanez, Antonio Blanco, Alena, Mariano Diaz, Boye
Barca return to winning ways but their backline will be breached
Both teams have scored in eight of Barcelona’s last nine outings. Galatasaray, Real Betis, Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid have all found the net.
The head-to-head follows suit. Seven of their last nine league meetings in Barcelona have seen both sides score.
Seven of those nine also finished as a Barcelona win, which fits our first bet selection this weekend. Flick is still without Eric Garcia and Andreas Christensen at the back. Jules Kounde is a doubt as well, so they won’t be at full strength defensively this weekend. The defeat to Real may also have knocked the confidence of Barca’s backline.
We can back this scenario at a 44.4% implied probability. The head-to-head record suggests the price should be much shorter, especially given Barca’s defensive absentees. This has huge potential to be the best value bet from our Barcelona vs Alaves predictions.
- Barcelona vs Alaves Bet 1: Barcelona to win and Both teams to score at odds of 2.25 with Stake
Alaves have the defensive numbers to frustrate their opponents
Alaves own the sixth-best defence in La Liga. 11 goals conceded in 10 games also match Barcelona’s defensive record.
They are even tighter on the road. Alaves have conceded only five goals in their away fixtures so far in 2026/27. They also top the division for interceptions per 90, at 10.7. Alaves rank eighth for expected goals conceded on 12.0.
Not a single set-piece goal has been conceded all season either. Barcelona have also kept four clean sheets themselves, despite enjoying several end-to-end contests. We can back the Under 3.5 Goals line at a 41.7% implied probability, when this should arguably be closer to a 48%-50% call.
- Barcelona vs Alaves Bet 2: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 2.40 with Stake
Adeyemi is due a return on his chance creation
Karim Adeyemi has generated 4.23 expected goals this season. He has scored just twice from that return. The German arrived from Borussia Dortmund for big money in the summer, and the underlying data suggests he’s hit the ground running.
His xG rate of 1.16 per 90 is hugely impressive. Only Raphinha (1.26) can beat this return among his teammates.
He is also firing off 4.4 shots per 90 across 328 minutes, the same number as Barca skipper Raphinha. Only three of his 10 appearances have been starts.
Raphinha is a fitness doubt this weekend, and Tuesday’s Champions League tie against Aston Villa is looming large. That should open the door for Adeyemi to earn a fourth start in Barca colours.
We can back him to score at any time at a 55.6% implied probability. If he lasts 75-80 minutes, the likelihood is probably closer to 60% since he’ll be the focal point of Barca’s attack.
- Barcelona vs Alaves Bet 3: Karim Adeyemi anytime goalscorer at odds of 1.80 with Stake