Our betting expert shares his predictions for the Madrid derby, with the hosts showing signs they can avoid defeat against a high-flying Real.
Best bets for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
- Double chance - Atletico Madrid/Draw at odds of 1.69 on Stake
- Anytime goalscorer - Jonathan David at odds of 3.05 on Stake
- Player assists 1+ - Vinicius Junior to get at least 1 assist at odds of 3.45 on Stake
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-2 Real Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction: Atletico Madrid: Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman - Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior
After six matches in La Liga, the table is already shaping up to what we’ve been used to in recent years. Barcelona are at the summit with 18 points, while Real Madrid sit second on 15 points, and Atleti are third with 13 points. Last season, however, Atleti missed out on third, as they were beaten by Villarreal on the final day of the campaign.
Diego Simeone’s men have had a relatively smooth start to La Liga this term, considering the summer drama with Julian Alvarez. They reinforced their top-three credentials with a 4-0 drubbing of Osasuna on Wednesday night. The result allowed them to stay in touch with the top two, and their aim this weekend is to leapfrog Real into second place.
Under Jose Mourinho, Real Madrid have produced positive results this season. They’ve only been beaten once, by Real Betis, but they bounced back quite nicely. Los Blancos have won three in a row since that defeat, including a Champions League triumph over Inter Milan.
However, their performances have not always matched those results, as evident in their midweek outing. Real were comfortably leading 2-0 against Elche before conceding twice. It took a 91st-minute winner from Carlos Espi to claim all three points, leading to Mourinho criticising his team’s lack of attacking efficiency.
Probable lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak, Llorente, Romero, Le Normand, Grimaldo, Lee, Koke, Cardoso, Baena, Lookman, David
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Dumfries, Konate, Huijsen, Cucurella, Valverde, Camavinga, Guler, Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, Mbappe
Both Madrid teams in great form
Atleti’s strength lies at the Metropolitano Stadium. Last season, they lost just three out of 19 league games in front of their fans. Simeone will be eager to improve on that record this term by avoiding defeat against their city rivals.
Real boasted the best away form in La Liga last season, but they struggled to get a result at this venue. They’re also on a run of three wins on the bounce and have won the previous two head-to-heads. The problem is Los Blancos are slightly shaky on the road, and may not deliver their usual performance.
The hosts enter this game on the back of consecutive victories in the league, which is exactly what they need ahead of the derby. Atleti won this fixture 5-2 last season. They’ve lost just one of the last seven head-to-heads they’ve hosted, winning and drawing three apiece. However, Real have lost just two of the last eight meetings in all competitions, making a case for the spoils to be shared.
- Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Betting Tip 1: Double chance - Atletico Madrid/Draw at odds of 1.69 on Stake
David heads into derby with confidence
Jonathan David joined Atletico Madrid on 1 September on loan from Juventus. Simeone has limited his minutes since his arrival, but he did start during the week against Osasuna. The Canadian got on the scoresheet and also set up a goal for his teammates.
David did score in a 30-minute cameo at the weekend away at Real Sociedad. His confidence will be high heading into this derby. With two goals and an assist in his last two appearances, he will be a threat to a Real side that have struggled to keep clean sheets.
David was unable to rediscover his best form at Juventus, but he will be keen to make an impact at Atleti. With Alvarez missing this one through a muscle injury, he is likely to start from the first whistle. As a result, if Atleti are to grab a couple of goals, he is a worthy candidate to get one.
- Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Betting Tip 2: Anytime goalscorer - Jonathan David at odds of 3.05 on Stake
Vini hopes to influence the game
With so many creative players on display on both sides, it’s difficult to choose one to influence the game. However, Vinicius Junior is an early candidate for the most assists in La Liga, currently one behind the leader, Anthony Gordon. Vini recorded an assist in last weekend’s 4-1 win over Rayo Vallecano.
That took his tally to three for the season in six appearances. After blanking last time out, he will be eager to influence this match. It’s worth noting that Vini scored twice in Real’s victory in the reverse fixture last season.
Vini provided an assist when Real suffered a 5-2 defeat to Atleti at the Metropolitano last term. So far, Vini has created 13 chances in La Liga, tied fifth in the division with Jude Bellingham and Unai Lopez. At an average of 2.3 chances created per 90, he will likely notch up another assist this weekend.
- Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Betting Tip 3: Player assists 1+ - Vinicius Junior to get at least 1 assist at odds of 3.45 on Stake