League leaders Inter are one of three teams yet to taste defeat in 2026/27. Can they maintain this run without the injured Lautaro Martinez?
Best bets for AC Milan vs Inter Milan
- Inter Milan to win at odds of 1.95 with 1xBet
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.25 with 1xBet
- Marcus Thuram to score or assist at odds of 1.83 with 1xBet
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: AC Milan 0-2 Inter Milan
- Goalscorers prediction: Inter Milan: Thuram, Bonny
The Derby della Madonnina returns to our screens this weekend as AC Milan entertain Inter Milan for the first time in 2026/27. This game sees two Milan clubs in very different moods right now, with Inter leading the way at the top and Milan sitting fifth.
Ruben Amorim’s AC Milan were humbled 4-2 by lowly Bologna on Wednesday night. It was a game the Rossoneri had targeted as an opportunity to claim three points to try and close the gap to Inter. However, Samuel Mbangula helped himself to a remarkable hat-trick to stun the San Siro into silence. He consigned Amorim to his first Serie A defeat at the Milan helm.
Amorim’s Milan job has been made much harder in recent weeks by multiple injuries to key players. Although Samuel Chukwueze, Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers are long-term absentees, Adrien Rabiot is also sidelined.
Meanwhile, Ruben Loftus-Cheek sustained a muscle tear, and Fikayo Tomori limped off against Bologna with a hamstring issue. It’s disastrous preparation for one of the biggest games in the club’s season.
As for Inter, they also played a Serie A game in midweek. They ran out comfortable 2-0 winners at struggling Venezia. Unlike their city neighbours, they appeared to come through the game unscathed.
Cristian Chivu will be without star striker Lautaro Martinez (thigh). However, the likes of Marcus Thuram and Yoann Bonny have more than stepped up to fill the void. John Stones (thigh), Luis Henrique (thigh), Curtis Jones (muscle) and Benjamin Pavard (thigh) are also unavailable through injury.
Probable lineups for AC Milan vs Inter Milan
AC Milan expected lineup: Maignan, De Winter, Pavlovic, Bartesaghi, Estupinan, Jashari, Modric, Musah, Cisse, Pulisic, Camarda
Inter Milan expected lineup: J. Martinez, Akanji, Bisseck, Bastoni, Diouf, Barella, Calhanoglu, Zielinski, Dimarco, Thuram, Bonny
Nerazzurri to get one over the Rossoneri
Inter have not beaten Milan in eight attempts. That run has to end sometime. The gap in form could not be clearer. Inter are unbeaten in nine league games, and Milan shipped four at home against Bologna on Wednesday.
Inter boss Cristian Chivu also rested Marcus Thuram before the Venezia trip. Amorim has no such luxury, with eight players currently unavailable. The Rossoneri have two fresh injury blows to contend with. They lost Tomori to a hamstring problem and Goncalo Ramos to a knee issue in midweek.
With Milan’s dismal Europa League loss at AFC Bournemouth and a heavy home loss to Bologna, Ruben Amorim’s men are genuinely vulnerable right now. We can back a comparatively fresh Inter to win here at a 51.3% implied probability. This looks like a fair price, given the attacking riches at their disposal.
- AC Milan vs Inter Milan Bet 1: Inter Milan to win at odds of 1.95 with 1xBet
Low-scoring clash, with both squads without their attacking stars
Each of the last four meetings has produced two goals or fewer. Two finished 1-1, and two were settled 1-0.
Lautaro Martinez is absent again for the visitors. Milan are also without a long list of attacking options. This includes joint-top scorer Adrien Rabiot. Derbies here tend to tighten rather than open up. Inter have conceded only 10 goals in nine Serie A matches so far this term.
The counter-argument is real. These two sides average 3.89 and 3.22 goals across their matches. Nevertheless, the head-to-head data is strong on this one, and we’ll back Unders at a 44.4% implied probability.
- AC Milan vs Inter Milan Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.25 with 1xBet
Backing Thuram to be the derby hero
Marcus Thuram has seven goal contributions in eight league matches. Five goals and two assists make him Inter’s focal point in Lautaro Martinez’s absence.
FotMob rates him at 7.73 across 545 minutes. He also averages 5.3 shots per 90, with 12 on target. His underlying statistics are equally impressive. Thuram is generating 0.87 expected goals and assists combined per 90.
Chivu has also managed his minutes carefully, with Lautaro out. Thuram has started six of eight league games. He’s almost certain to start against Inter’s bitter city rivals. Milan’s makeshift backline offers Thuram a real chance to make an impact.
We can back him to score or assist at a 54.6% implied probability. The likelihood is closer to 60%, making this the value bet from our AC Milan vs Inter Milan predictions.
- AC Milan vs Inter Milan Bet 3: Marcus Thuram to score or assist at odds of 1.83 with 1xBet