Bologna have won once at AC Milan in Serie A since 2008. It has rarely been a happy ground, but is there hope after two league wins in three?
Best bets for AC Milan vs Bologna
- AC Milan -1 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.70 with Stake
- Both teams to score (no) at odds of 1.90 with Stake
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00 with Stake
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: AC Milan 2-0 Bologna
- Goalscorers prediction: AC Milan: Ramos, Cissè
Milan host Bologna at the San Siro on Wednesday evening, still unbeaten in Serie A. Ruben Amorim’s side have won five and drawn three of their opening eight league games.
They strolled to a 2-0 win at Udinese on Sunday to cement their place inside the Serie A top four. Adrien Rabiot has been the driving force, with four goals and three assists. FotMob rates him as the squad’s standout performer at 7.67.
European nights have been less kind to the Rossoneri. Milan were thrashed 3-0 at Bournemouth in the Europa League last Thursday. Fortunately, they are still one of the four teams to remain unbeaten in Serie A.
Bologna arrive 13th on eight points. Raffaele Palladino took charge in September after Domenico Tedesco was sacked, and he has started to steady the ship. Saturday’s 2-0 win at Cagliari was their second victory in four. However, goals remain the issue, with just eight scored in eight rounds.
Palladino is also without Emil Holm, Riccardo Orsolini and Roberto Piccoli. Milan have the Inter derby to follow on Saturday, so the hosts will be keen to secure the points without wasting too much energy.
Probable lineups for AC Milan vs Bologna
AC Milan expected lineup: Maignan, Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic, Estupinan, Modric, Musah, Terracciano, Cisse, Pulisic, Ramos
Bologna expected lineup: Skorupski, Darmian, Theate, Casale, Ferguson, Pobega, Miranda, Zortea, Odgaard, Cambiaghi, Bernardeschi
Rossoneri to win by at least a two-goal margin
Milan have won by two goals or more in two of their first three games at home this season. They brushed aside Venezia and Lecce 2-0 and 3-0, respectively. Atalanta lost by a one-goal margin, but they play a much more expansive style than Bologna.
Milan have averaged two goals per game so far this term. Four of the last seven Serie A meetings between the teams have led to a Milan win by a two-goal margin or more. That’s a strike rate of over 57% between now and July 2020.
We can back this scenario on Wednesday night at a modest implied probability of 37.04%. Milan won’t have much time to prepare for the game, given their away trip to Udinese on Sunday night. Nevertheless, they have enough attacking quality to secure the win if they break down Bologna’s defence early.
- AC Milan vs Bologna Bet 1: AC Milan -1 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.70 with Stake
Bologna to struggle to find the net
Four of the last six Serie A meetings between the sides at the San Siro have resulted in the Rossoneri keeping a clean sheet. Amorim’s men have kept two clean sheets in their opening three home matches in 2026/27.
With Bologna sitting only 13th in the league for big chances created, Raffaele Palladino’s side could struggle to threaten Milan’s defence. The visitors’ top scorer in the league, Federico Bernardeschi, has just two goals to his name in eight games.
We can back a clean sheet for either side on Wednesday evening at an implied probability of just 52.63%. This looks like a fair price to enter considering the head-to-head history and Bologna’s low goal output.
- AC Milan vs Bologna Bet 2: Both teams to score (no) at odds of 1.90 with Stake
xG data suggests a high-scoring affair is unlikely
It’s difficult to expect a goal fest on Wednesday. Although Milan have scored three apiece in each of their last two home games, Bologna are much less potent in the final third. Bologna sit 14th in Serie A’s xG table, having created just 10.6 xG in eight games.
The visitors are also 16th in Serie A’s table for shots on target per match, averaging just 3.8. Defensively, Bologna have been more watertight. They sit 6th in the Serie A for xG conceded (9.9).
All of this suggests Bologna are less likely to be involved in an open, end-to-end contest. They keep things tight and try hard to concede gilt-edged opportunities. With the Rossoneri only playing on Sunday night, they’ll have little time to recuperate for Wednesday’s game.
- AC Milan vs Bologna Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00 with Stake