Minnows are pitted against giants, and the tournament is bigger than ever before. The totals market on CWC goals and cards is definitely worth a look.
| Club World Cup totals | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 180 goals | 1.80 |
| Over 265 yellow cards | 2.20 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Teams on the attack
Football matches have seen an upward trend in goals for a while now, and the stats back it up. There were 172 scored at the 2022 World Cup, 2.69 per game, but this year’s Champions League sat at 3.26 per match. If you take that same rate of scoring to the 63 CWC clashes, it’d suggest 205 goals - which would be a lot of fun.
There have been fewer goals scored in other competitions, of course. The Premier League averages 2.93, La Liga is at 2.62 and the Copa Libertadores sits at 2.6. However, with the clear mismatches in this tournament and the quality of attackers, we anticipate plenty more.
No disrespect to Auckland City, Al Ain and Urawa Red Diamonds, but sides like Bayern Munich, Manchester City and Inter Milan should prove too much. Some of the best strikers in the world will be up against significantly less experienced defenders, and we know where that leads.
Recent editions of this tournament have been full of goals, too. The 2021 edition averaged 3.38 per game, 2022 had a whopping 4.29, and there were 3.29 when City won it in 2023. The stage is set for another high-scoring affair in the States this summer.
It’s also a tournament that clubs are taking more and more seriously, and for several clubs, it’s a chance to save a barren 2024/25 season. The $40m+ prize money does not hurt, either.
Some busy referees
Another market worth considering is the one involving yellow cards. When you pit smaller clubs with a point to prove against bigger teams, it can get physical. Trying to contain Kylian Mbappe or Ousmane Dembele is hard work if you don’t face their level every week.
Champions League matches have seen an average of 3.9 yellow cards per game this season, which would translate to around 246 cards at the CWC. With the addition of South American teams - who averaged 5.02 cards per Copa Libertadores game - that total could increase. Based on the Copa Libertadores rate, that’d be 316 cards at the CWC.
The last edition in 2023 averaged 2.5 yellows per fixture - but again, that’s likely to increase with the inclusion of more teams and increased financial incentive. It could definitely be a busy few weeks for the match officials.
All in all, it’s set to be an exciting tournament as 32 teams from six different confederations lock horns around America. The mix of styles, the mismatches in quality, and the hefty prize pot should all make for an intriguing spectacle. Goals and cards are just one way to look for value.
In all likelihood, it’ll be a European team that goes on to win it, it usually is. However, with such a diverse group of clubs involved, there could be some stories to tell along the way.