Spain vs France Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Spain vs. France
- Spain Victory with odds of @ 2.50 on Parimatch and @ 2.65 on Parions Sport, equating to a 40% & 37.7% chance of the Spanish winning.
- Lamine Yamal to score with odds of @ 5.75 on Parimatch, indicating a 17.4% chance for the 16-year-old forward to score.
- Both teams to score No with odds of @ 1.77 on Parimatch, representing a 56.5% chance one team won’t find the back of the net.
Spain should edge a tight game against France by a scoreline of 1-0.
Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
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These two nations arrive in the semi-finals, having broken hearts in the last round. Spain ruined the dreams of the host nation as they knocked out Germany with almost the last kick of extra time. Meanwhile, France’s penalty shootout victory against Portugal almost certainly meant Cristiano Ronaldo’s last appearance at a European Championship ended in defeat.
Kylian Mbappé was substituted at half-time in extra-time because he was simply too tired. The French captain has been struggling to play wearing a face mask to protect his broken nose and was left to watch from the sidelines as his teammates scored all five of their penalties in the successful shootout against Portugal.
Spain bounced back from conceding an 89th-minute equaliser to Germany in their quarter final. Just as the match seemed destined for a penalty shootout, substitute Mikel Merino stunned the home crowd by heading past Manuel Neuer with just 90 seconds remaining.
Probable Lineups for Spain vs. France
The probable lineup for Spain in the 4-3-3
Simón; Navas, Nacho, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Fabián; Yamal, Olmo, Williams; Morata.
The probable lineup for France in the 4-3-1-2
Maignan; Koundé, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernández; Kanté, Tchouaméni, Rabiot; Griezmann; Muani, Mbappé.
Blunt Bleus to suffer semi S-pain
Spain’s 100% record at Euro 2024 and a 10-game competitive fixture winning run may have been ended following their 1-1 draw with Germany. Nevertheless, they still managed to get the job done before the need of penalties and became only the third nation to do so in their first five games of the tournament. France achieved this feat in 1984 and Italy did it in 2020 and both went on to lift the trophy.
Luis de la Fuente’s side have been the eye-catchers of Euro 2024, showcasing a fluid and exciting attack on their way to become joint top scorers, whilst being watertight in defence. Florian Wirtz’s brilliant 89th-minute strike in the quarter final was the first goal scored against them by an opposition player this tournament.
Both of Spain’s goals in Stuttgart came from players who did not start the game flexing their strength in depth. Lamine Yamal provided an exquisite pass for the opening strike, the third assist so far for the 16-year-old.
France have laboured their way through to the last four. They are still waiting for one of their own players to score from open play and seemed to play for penalties from minute one against Portugal.
- Spain vs France Bet 1: Spain Victory @ 2.50 with Parimatch
In-form Yamal Lamine’s business
We have already mentioned Lamine Yamal and how he has provided three assists, which is a tournament-high. His electric performances so far mean he is now the red-hot favourite to win Young Player of the Tournament.
The 16-year-old now has seven assists in just 12 internationals, but we are taking him to add to his tally of two goals for Spain here. He hit the back of the net five times in his breakthrough season for Barcelona leading up to the European Championship.
Yamal sits in the top 10 for attempts at goal in the tournament so far with 13 shots to his name, six of which were on target. Only Cristiano Ronaldo has had more efforts without scoring and an expected goals total of 1.92 is also in the top 10 and shows the quality of chances he has had. He is too good to keep letting those opportunities pass him by.
- Spain vs France Bet 2: Lamine Yamal Anytime Goalscorer @ 5.75 with Parimatch
Goals dry up as the tournament end is in sight
As to be expected with more at stake in matches, there have been fewer goals the deeper we have gone in the competition. The opening round of fixtures saw 34 goals at an average of 2.83 per game. By the end of the group stage, that average had dropped to 2.25, a number replicated in the Round of 16 with only 1.75 goals per game in normal time across the quarter-finals.
In total, we have seen both teams score in 26 of the 48 fixtures so far at Euro 2024, which is 54%. However, we have two mean defences here and one misfiring attack, which makes No in the both-teams-to-score market a great play .
Spain kept a clean sheet in all three of their group games, scoring an own goal against Georgia, while only allowing them four attempts. Florian Wirtz is the only opponent to have scored against them so far. Only one of France’s five games has seen both teams score and both of those goals in the Poland tie came from the penalty spot. Kyllian Mbappe scored theirs, with two own goals completing their tally of three for the tournament.
Only two of the last eight meetings between these two nations have seen both teams score.
- Spain vs France Bet 3: Both Teams to Score No @ 1.77 with Parimatch