Nottingham Forest led the way last season for set-piece goals, and are already off the mark for 2025/26. However, who else is worth backing?
| Set piece market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Gabriel/Calafiori anytime goalscorer vs Leeds | 5.00 and 8.50 |
| Milenkovic anytime goalscorer vs Palace | 11.00 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Set pieces in the Premier League
Set pieces are one of the most effective ways to score goals, and it’s been true for years. A total of 135 goals were scored from them in the Premier League last season. As expected, some clubs are better than others at both scoring from and defending them.
For instance, no team in the division has scored more goals from set pieces than Nottingham Forest, with 17 goals. They are closely followed by Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, as both of them scored 16. Nikola Milenkovic and Chris Wood are particularly dangerous, having scored eight goals via set pieces for Forest last season.
Arsenal were fourth with 15 scored from set pieces in 2024/25. However, they were almost as bad at defending them, having conceded 14 goals from set pieces during their campaign. Having let in 20 goals, only Southampton and Wolverhampton Wanderers conceded more, and it is unclear whether the Gunners have rectified that.
Interestingly, set-piece goals were generally down last season, having dropped from 171 in the season before, but one particular type increased. From 2020/21 to 2023/24, there were 27 goals scored from throw-ins in the Premier League. That number increased to 20 in the 2024/25 campaign alone. It makes up 1.8% of all goals scored last season, which is a dramatic increase.
It's a well-known saying that you should bet on the stronger players on this front. They are the ones who are most likely to get the final touch on the ball in the penalty area to score a goal.
Who to back on set pieces
Having examined who was the most likely to score from set pieces, let’s look at who is the least likely, as it is important, as well.
Surprisingly, Brentford had the best record for defending set pieces last season, as they’ve conceded just two. Their set-piece coach, Keith Andrews, is now their manager, so it’ll be interesting to see how that affects their performance. Manchester City were second best, with five goals, followed by Aston Villa, who scored seven.
Meanwhile, Fulham were the least effective in attacking from set pieces, having scored only four in 2024/25. Interestingly, City were also near the bottom, with just seven all season. This suggests that they’re better at defending them than attacking them. Set-piece goals are probably not worth looking for in Pep Guardiola’s games.
As expected, both Forest and Arsenal have already scored one goal from set pieces after Matchday 1. This trend is expected to continue. Having netted six times, only Yoane Wissa scored more set-piece goals than the Tricky Trees’ Milenkovic, who scored six. So, he could be a value anytime goalscorer. For Mikel Arteta’s side, Gabriel Magalhaes and Mikel Merino led the way with three goals scored, while William Saliba also contributed a couple.
As the season progresses, informed decisions can be made by identifying teams with a weakness in defending set pieces. For example, Milenkovic scored three of his five goals against teams in the top seven for set-piece goals conceded. This trend will become clearer as the campaign progresses.