Premier League relegation odds: Newly-promoted side become the value pick

With Nottingham Forest and West Ham improving under new management, these are worrying times for two of the newly-promoted clubs.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Wolves

With only two points from their first 11 matches, Wolves are already in serious trouble. They waited until November to make a managerial change. Vitor Pereira has departed, and Rob Edwards will take charge of his first match against Crystal Palace on Saturday.

If there is no reaction to his appointment over the next few weeks, Wolves’ relegation is almost inevitable. The 42-year-old has an affection for the club. He spent the best years of his playing career there. He was also doing an excellent job at Middlesbrough before surprisingly agreeing to this switch.

However, there are too many flaws in this Wolves squad to suggest he is going to be their saviour. They are the Premier League’s lowest scorers, with an average of 0.64 goals per game. None of their players have registered more than one league goal this term.

The West Midlands side have also let in a league-high 2.27 goals per match. Their xG numbers are slightly better. However, they still have the second-lowest xGD (expected goals difference) of -6.4. That suggests they are firmly on course for relegation, although it may not be worth backing them at such short odds.

Burnley

Burnley were considered the pre-season relegation favourites. While Wolves’ miserable start has provided a small boost for the Clarets, they still need to finish above two other teams.

Many of their games so far have been close in terms of the final scoreline. They could easily have accumulated more than 10 points had it not been for stoppage-time goals conceded against Man Utd and Liverpool.

However, the underlying data suggests that if anything, Burnley have overachieved so far. Their xG total of 8.2 is the lowest in the Premier League. Meanwhile, they’ve allowed 23.4 xG, which is also the worst record.

They have an xGD of -15.3, compared to an actual goal difference of -8. That suggests their results are likely to regress over the coming months, unless Scott Parker can find other improvements.

The Lancashire side’s three victories have come against the other newly-promoted clubs and Wolves. They are unlikely to pick up enough points against the stronger teams to remain in the top flight. 

West Ham

There is finally reason to be positive for West Ham. After the miserable spell under Graham Potter, they turned to Nuno Espirito Santo in September. His results were initially poor too, but the ex-Nottingham Forest boss is starting to stamp his mark.

A switch to a 4-3-3 system contributed to a 3-1 victory over Newcastle and a 3-2 win over Burnley before the internationals. West Ham had under 45% of the ball in those games, but a more direct style is paying off. They had 15 shots in each of those matches — more than they had managed in any game earlier this season. 

Nuno also appears to have improved his personnel choices. Freddie Potts has come into the side in a defensive midfield role and has appeared confident. Meanwhile, the experienced Callum Wilson is now the favoured striker.

While there are still defensive concerns, West Ham finally have something to build from. The quality of Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta should also give them the edge on their relegation rivals. With Nuno at the helm, survival seems achievable.

Leeds

With Nottingham Forest also improving under Sean Dyche, Leeds United now appear far more vulnerable. They are currently 16th, averaging exactly one point per game. However, Daniel Farke’s side have suffered defeats in four of their last five matches.

Farke, whose previous Premier League record is unimpressive too, could be the next manager to lose his job if results don’t improve. Regardless, concerns over the squad would remain. 

Few of their existing players have shown they can deliver at the higher level on a consistent basis. Centre-back Joe Rodon could be the exception, while Sean Longstaff has done well since joining from Newcastle. 

However, they don’t seem to have done anywhere near as well in the transfer market as Sunderland. The Mackems finished 24 points below Leeds in last season’s Championship. While they’ve brought in genuine quality, Leeds seem short on firepower. None of their players have scored more than twice so far.

The Yorkshire side have been competitive at Elland Road, but their away form is a major concern. Leeds have lost five out of six on their travels. Their xGD of -1.05 per 90 minutes on the road is the worst in the league, aside from Burnley.

That is putting enormous pressure on this team to get results at home. With an implied probability of 38.1%, Leeds are the value pick to be relegated.