While West Ham and Leeds are also trying hard to avoid 18th place, this weekend’s result will have a big impact on shaping the relegation battle.
| Premier League relegation | Odds |
|---|---|
| West Ham | 2.75 |
| Tottenham | 3.00 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3.00 |
| Leeds | 6.50 |
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
West Ham
Wolves and Burnley are all but certain to be playing Championship football next season. However, West Ham’s improved form ensures there is no clear favourite for the third relegation position.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have only lost two of their last 12 matches in all competitions. They have the most momentum of all the teams in the relegation battle. With 12 points from their last eight games, they only need to maintain their current form.
They have needed to dig deep at times, though. The Hammers recorded only one shot in their 1-1 draw against Man City last weekend. They also face a more difficult schedule than their relegation rivals, with their remaining opponents averaging 1.39 points per game.
Despite those factors, West Ham intend to reach 40 points, with Wolves and Leeds yet to visit the London Stadium. Nuno's side also face an out-of-form Aston Villa at a good time this weekend. With a sense of belief that was significantly absent earlier in the season, they appear well-positioned to avoid relegation.
Tottenham
The significance of this weekend’s match is clear to everyone associated with Tottenham. A home defeat to Forest would see the North London club drop to 17th at best, and potentially into the bottom three.
Spurs dismissed Thomas Frank in February and appointed Igor Tudor. However, the Croatian’s tenure began with four consecutive defeats in all competitions. Performance levels have declined further, and the 47-year-old will likely be dismissed if Sunday’s game ends in defeat.
There was a glimmer of hope for the injury-ravaged club last weekend. They defended better and only allowed one big chance in a creditable 1-1 draw away to Liverpool. Richarlison’s 90th-minute leveller has the potential to be a turning point.
However, that match wasn’t difficult from a Tottenham perspective. There is little evidence to suggest the hosts will manage high-pressure situations effectively over the final two months of the campaign.
Spurs possess the worst home record in the Premier League. They average just 0.67 points per game in front of their own fans. This provides genuine hope to both Forest and Leeds, who still have to visit the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The side's winless start to 2026 in the league suggests it is worth backing Spurs to be relegated before this weekend’s crucial match against a direct rival.
Nottingham Forest
Like Tottenham, Nottingham Forest also enter Sunday’s match following a busy fortnight in Europe. The two sides are currently given an identical implied relegation probability of 33.3%.
Forest have also failed to get a new-manager bounce since appointing Vitor Pereira. The Portuguese boss has won only one of his seven games so far, and that was in the Europa League.
Pereira has needed to manage some difficult fixtures, though. His side secured a 2-2 draw away to Man City earlier this month. They also appeared solid in a goalless encounter with Fulham in their last match.
Those results provide foundations for the new manager. However, he has inherited a team that has failed to score in 14 of their 30 Premier League matches. Nottingham Forest’s main striker, Igor Jesus, has netted just twice in 29 league appearances.
Statistically, Forest’s remaining schedule is equally as difficult as Tottenham's. Both of their respective opponents average 1.29 points per game. However, there is a genuine opportunity for the East Midlands side to move clear of the relegation zone in their next four games.
Three of those fixtures are against the current bottom three in the form table for the last eight games. Their home match with Burnley in April is one they expect to win. Their other upcoming opponents are Aston Villa, who have only the 15th-best record over the same period.
There is clear potential for Pereira’s team to secure points over the next few weeks. That suggests they are not worth backing for relegation at this time.
Leeds
Despite a great run of form around the start of the year, Leeds are still in danger. Goals have become scarce for the Yorkshire side, who have failed to score in their last three Premier League matches. They’ve only won twice since the start of 2026, although one of those victories was against relegation rivals Forest.
They travel to Tottenham and West Ham in their last two away games. Those fixtures could be significant, and there is potential for a relegation showdown at the London Stadium on the final weekend.
However, there are reasons to believe the side can ensure safety before that point. Their remaining opponents average just 1.08 points per game. That’s largely because they still have winnable home fixtures against the bottom two to come.
While nothing is certain, particularly with Wolves in good form, Leeds would reach 38 points with victories in those two matches. Having drawn away to Chelsea and Villa in February, they should also be competitive in their other remaining fixtures.
The underlying data suggests that Leeds are not among the three worst teams in the Premier League. They already have 43.2 xPTS (expected points), ranking 11th, according to that metric. Even at slightly longer odds than the other three clubs, Daniel Farke’s side do not appear like a value relegation pick.