The knockout round play-off first legs delivered plenty of excitement. Could these Europa League second legs produce ever more goals?

Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Will Teams’ Desperation Lead to More Entertainment?

There is plenty on the line for most of the teams in this knockout play-off round, with some sides having a lot of work ahead. Seven of the eight ties saw a winner in the first leg, which means seven sides will be desperate to overturn a deficit ahead of these second legs.

Some will be more desperate than others, with two sides trailing by three goals in their ties. Both Anderlecht and Galatasaray lost by three-goal margins in their first legs, but they will have home advantage in the second leg.

With the support of their respective home crowds, those sides have plenty of motivation to try and overthrow their deficits. However, this comes with risks, as they could be vulnerable to counter attacks.

Even if they are, that won’t stop their need for goals. Whether they are three, four or five goals behind on aggregate, they will still have to keep pushing forward. This will make the games wide open and may lead to plenty of goals. 

The bookmakers have caught on to this trend, and Anderlecht and Fenerbahce’s games are the shortest price to see over 2.5 goals. Yet, this doesn’t mean there isn’t value in the overs market in the other six games. 

Five of the eight ties are either level or currently separated by just one goal, so they could well be cagey affairs. Historical data suggests this might be the case, as 26 goals were scored in the second leg of last season’s play-offs.

A similarly high number of goals was scored in the second legs of the 2022/23 play-off round, so these games tend to produce plenty of goals. Other factors, like Roma’s strong home form and Ajax’s fantastic record against Belgian opposition, also suggest these games could see high-scoring results. 

Do the Tight Ties Raise a Warning? 

Many of the ties are currently being decided by a single goal, which offers a slight note of caution against the overs market. Teams holding a lead may be hesitant to push forward, which could lead to some games being cagey.

However, the sides who need to overturn leads will still have to adopt an attacking approach, which suggests ties will still be entertaining. An early goal in any of those ties could spark the game into life, regardless of the outcome. 

This is something the bookmakers may have overlooked, as over 2.5 goals is priced just under evens for most second-leg games. This could be a market worth exploring for bettors, given the rich history of goals in this competition.

The top three scoring teams so far in the Europa League are all taking to the field on Thursday night. Additionally, six of the ten teams who have attempted the most shots are also playing, so there’s plenty of potential for goals.

Backing over 2.5 goals in all eight games is priced at around 95.00 with Stake. While betting on the overs in all games may be far-fetched, there is certainly value to be found in the goals market for some of the matches.

50% of the games featured over 2.5 goals in the last league phase round, many of which had significant stakes. As we could expect something similar here, four over 2.5 picks is the way to go.