March arrives with Arsenal and City chasing the coveted quadruple. No club from the UK has done this since Celtic’s 1967 Lisbon Lions.
| Manchester City Outright Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| FA Cup and Champions League winners | 34.00 |
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Beyond the treble
In 138 years of English football, no season has ever reached March with two clubs still capable of winning every trophy on offer. The current 2025/26 season changes that.
Winning a treble is rare enough. The quadruple sits next to it in football mythology. Manchester United’s 1998/99 treble-winning team came the closest among Premier League sides. They were eliminated by Tottenham in the League Cup quarter-finals that season.
No team in Europe’s top five leagues has ever completed the true quadruple. That includes winning all three domestic trophies plus the European Cup in one season.
Celtic’s 1967 team, nicknamed the Lisbon Lions, did it north of the border. The Celts secured the European Cup, Scottish First Division, Scottish Cup and Scottish League Cup in the 1966/67 season.
Now, Arsenal and City chase the same dream. After 26 rounds, Arsenal lead the Premier League by four points. Their defence has conceded just 17 league goals – the best in the division. Mikel Arteta’s men also won all eight Champions League matches, finishing top of the league phase above free-scoring Bayern Munich.
A FA Cup fifth round tie against League One side Mansfield Town awaits. So does a Carabao Cup final against City at the end of March.
City possess the league’s most potent attack. They average 2.08 goals per game, led by Golden Boot favourite Erling Haaland. The Cityzens have momentum, experience, and the memory of 2023’s treble fresh in their minds.
Yet, the market sees them differently. Odds suggest Arsenal are more likely to win the Champions League than City. The gap in FA Cup odds is similarly vast. This reasoning largely stems from the Premier League.
As it stands, Arsenal are favourites to lift the domestic top-flight title. Opta gives the Gunners an 85.8% chance, and City are at 12.1%. The Gunners have a favourable run-in, but they visit the Etihad on April 18 in a fixture likely to decide the crown.
Here is where the logic frays. City do not need the league to win the FA Cup and Champions League. Separate tournaments come with separate dynamics. In knockout football, City’s pedigree and experience tower over Arsenal’s.
The Gunners’ Champions League and recent FA Cup history are littered with near-misses. City have won both recently. The gap in odds imply City are nearly three times less likely to win Europe’s elite competition. That simply does not reflect reality.
Arsenal’s league phase was flawless, but knockout football hits different. Ask Paris Saint-Germain, who stumbled through last season’s league phase before lifting the trophy for the first time ever.
Here, the market has evidently overreacted. It prices Arsenal’s league position into competitions where league positions matter far less. It also ignores City’s knockout experience, squad depth and habit of delivering when the stakes are high.
This creates opportunity. Not to back City for the quadruple, but to back them for the two trophies where their odds look wildly inflated: the FA Cup and the Champions League.
The value lies in the chaos
To begin with, it is important to remember that this is about value, not certainty. The price implies a roughly 3% chance for City winning both competitions. Given their squad, manager, recent history and knockout pedigree, that number seems far too low.
In the FA Cup, City remain in contention alongside Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool. Newcastle United await them in the fifth round. The Magpies have suffered defeats in three of their last four meetings with City, including a 3-1 EFL Cup elimination this season.
At the time of writing, the Champions League knockout bracket is undecided. City finished the league phase strongly. Their recent experience in the competition gives them an edge Arsenal cannot replicate.
For all their brilliance, Arsenal have not been here before. Arteta is yet to win a major trophy with Arsenal – his only big achievement is the FA Cup title in 2019/20. They have a favourable matchup with Mansfield Town in the FA Cup fifth round. However, the margins will expectedly tighten in April and May.
The league remains Arsenal’s to lose, given the fact they have easier remaining fixtures than Manchester City. Yet, cup football is different. Experience trumps form in knockout ties. Depth trumps sentiment. City have both in abundance.
Backing City to win these two competitions is not a quadruple gamble. It is a wager on the market mispricing two specific competitions. The value sits firmly in the blue corner of Manchester.