Alexander Isak is deemed to have the best chance of toppling Haaland. The Swede has the strongest potential, given his 2024/25 and 2023/24 form.
| 26-27 Premier League top scorer market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 1.66 |
| Alexander Isak | 10.00 |
| Igor Thiago | 11.00 |
| João Pedro | 15.00 |
| Benjamin Šeško | 23.00 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Erling Haaland - 1.66
Haaland once again finished as the Premier League's top scorer in 2025/26, with 27 goals. This followed back-to-back Golden Boots in 2022/23 (36) and 2023/24 (27).
Pep Guardiola may have departed. However, leading the attack for Manchester City should still provide Haaland with high-quality chances few, if any, forwards can rival.
His 25.43 xG last term topped the division, ahead of Brentford's Igor Thiago on 20.57 xG. Haaland is also expected to remain the club’s primary penalty taker, having converted three spot-kicks last term. This is a meaningful edge over a 38-game campaign.
The problem is purely down to his price. There is no margin for error. A single injury, a dip in form, or a change of approach under new management, and the bet is gone. As it stands, there is no compensation for the risk taken.
Alexander Isak - 10.00
Liverpool’s Swedish striker looks like the most credible threat to Haaland, provided he can stay fit.
Andoni Iraola's arrival should lift Liverpool's attacking output. Isak is the obvious beneficiary. Only Arsenal (71), Manchester City (77), Manchester United (69) and Liverpool (63) outscored Iraola's Bournemouth (58) last season.
That’s a striking return, given the financial gulf between the clubs. Mohamed Salah is gone, and Hugo Ekitike is unlikely to feature again in the 2026 calendar year through injury.
Isak inherits the goalscoring burden almost entirely. If he can rediscover his Newcastle form, he could be capable of troubling Haaland.
However, his availability remains a concern. He featured in just 14 games last season, following 34 appearances in 2024/25 when he scored 23 goals, 30 in 2023/24 and 22 in 2022/23. Golden Boot winners generally play most of the 38 games available, which could hold Isak back in this market.
Igor Thiago - 11.00
Brentford’s Brazilian was the breakout performer in last season’s Premier League. Thiago’s form was emphatic enough to earn a place in Brazil’s World Cup squad this summer.
Can he replicate that output in 2026/27? Thiago shone in a season where Brentford were widely tipped for a relegation fight. Yet, under the inexperienced Keith Andrews, the Bees stormed to a top-half finish.
Thiago netted 22 goals from 20.58 xG, scoring more than a third of Brentford’s 55 goals scored last season.
That’s a significant overperformance which could be difficult to sustain. If the Bees maintain similar underlying numbers and Thiago continues to outperform his xG, a 9% probability looks reasonable. However, regression towards his expected goals would make it difficult for him to keep pace with the leading contenders.
João Pedro - 15.00
Pedro could be the smart each-way pick before the Premier League begins in earnest. Much of the appeal comes from Chelsea’s favourable fixture schedule. Pedro scored 15 goals last season, which wasn’t enough to earn a place in Brazil’s squad for the 2026 World Cup.
However, he still finished as Chelsea’s top scorer in another frustrating season. He must now prove himself again under new Blues boss Xabi Alonso.
Alonso’s record with Bayer Leverkusen suggests his system rarely relies on a focal point striker. In Leverkusen’s title-winning season in 2023/24, only two players (Victor Boniface and Florian Wirtz) achieved double figures.
Chelsea’s 10th-place finish also means they have no European commitments, allowing the squad to concentrate entirely on domestic football. This is a genuine advantage over rivals juggling midweek travel.
That combination makes him one of our top value picks before a ball has been kicked. However, we'll take the each-way position and back a top-four finish in the scoring charts rather than outright.
Benjamin Šeško - 23.00
Michael Carrick's caretaker spell went well. Yet, the United side benefited from a clear midweek calendar.
A third-placed finish changes things. 2026/27 brings European football alongside a demanding league schedule, raising questions about both squad depth and Carrick's ability to manage it.
If United handle the load, Šeško is well placed to profit. He scored 11 in 30 Premier League appearances last term. This represents a strong first season in the division, which was also disrupted by a difficult early spell under Rúben Amorim.
The finish was the encouraging part: nine goals in his final 14 appearances, with eight of those coming off the bench.
Nail down Carrick’s central role, and 20 league goals is a realistic target for the 23-year-old. Whether that's enough to beat Haaland is another matter. Nevertheless, it’s a high-risk play at a probability of just 4.35%.