The underlying data also highlights how well the Seagulls are playing, with Fabian Hurzeler’s team hoping to take advantage of problems elsewhere.
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Brighton
Before the season, Brighton were given an implied probability of around 8% of finishing in the top four. However, their odds have shortened dramatically thanks to a stunning start to the campaign.
The Seagulls have lost just one of their opening six Premier League matches. A statement 3-0 victory over reigning champions Arsenal highlighted their credentials as potential Champions League qualifiers.
Teams who pick up such impressive results can often fall flat in their following games. However, Brighton kept the momentum up with a 2-0 win at Sunderland as they returned from a three-week international break. They restricted their opponents to just 0.72 xG (expected goals), despite being reduced to 10 men in the 57th minute.
If Brighton can maintain that defensive solidity, a top-four finish could become a realistic target. Their attacking numbers already place them among the elite, with Hurzeler’s side netting a league-high 18 goals. They also lead the way with 12.91 xG in the Premier League this term.
The Seagulls have built a reputation for shrewd recruitment and consistently refreshing their squad. Recent arrivals include Charalampos Kostoulas, Maxim De Cuyper and Luka Vuskovic, all of whom joined in the past two summers.
The club also added considerable depth to their squad in the most recent window. Their strengthened squad should help them manage the demands of competing in Europe while maintaining their domestic form.
It’s clear that their bright start is no fluke, and the underlying data suggests they are capable of maintaining their good form. If Brighton extend their winning run, their odds of qualifying for the Champions League are likely to shorten further. With the likes of Tottenham, Manchester United, Newcastle and Aston Villa struggling, Brighton offer value in the top-four market.
Chelsea
This already feels like a unique Premier League season, given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Manchester City’s guilty verdict. A significant points deduction for City would further raise the possibility of some surprise names reaching the Champions League places.
As one of the few expected challengers that look reasonably convincing, Chelsea shouldn’t struggle to make the top four. They have no European distractions following a sub-par 2025/26 campaign. While they’ve not been flawless, there is clearly something building under Xabi Alonso.
Hiring the former Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid boss in the summer was a major coup for the club. He already appears to have found the right balance in attack, with Joao Pedro, Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer forming a dangerous trio.
Pedro is the Blues’ top scorer in the Premier League, with five goals. Rogers has also struck four times and is immediately thriving at Stamford Bridge following his move from Villa. Palmer is also getting back to his best. He has recorded two goals and three assists in six league appearances this term.
Chelsea’s potent attack has made them more impressive than fellow top-four hopefuls Liverpool and Manchester United. They returned from the international break in style, thrashing Bournemouth 5-1.
There are still areas where improvement is needed, particularly in defence, but overall the signs are encouraging. Despite averaging 2.5 goals per game in the league, Chelsea’s top-four odds have only shortened slightly. They still look like a solid bet in that market, although the potential returns are much less compared to Brighton.
Liverpool
In contrast to Chelsea, who at least seem to have figured things out in the final third, Liverpool have more room for improvement. Andoni Iraola is a proven Premier League manager, having done an excellent job at Bournemouth. He has brought a different approach to Anfield, following a miserable season under Arne Slot.
However, getting this group of Liverpool players to execute his game plan is proving difficult. The likes of Florian Wirtz, Alexander Isak, and Bradley Barcola have all struggled to produce their best football following big-money moves. None of those players have come close to living up to their price tags so far.
Occasionally, their quality does shine through, but consistency is proving elusive. Despite the huge investment in recent windows, the balance on the pitch and throughout the squad remains questionable.
So far this season, Liverpool’s Premier League results and underlying figures have been unremarkable. They’ve won just two of their opening six fixtures, drawing three times. The Reds are both scoring and conceding at a rate of 1.17 goals per game.
Iraola’s team are ninth in the table and also rank ninth with their total of 9.3 xG. They have the quality to climb the table and secure a top-four finish. However, their current odds offer little value.
Manchester United
Life at Old Trafford in recent years has taken on a cyclical feel. Several managers have arrived and briefly threatened to turn the club’s fortunes around. However, several promising spells have been followed by a dip in form and, ultimately, a change of manager.
It’s hard to avoid the sense that we’ve been here before when it comes to their current plight under Michael Carrick. The 45-year-old made a real impact initially, leading the Red Devils to a third-place finish last term. However, his side have made a disastrous start to this season, with just one win in six league outings.
Carrick’s tactical setup has been found wanting. There is a clear lack of intensity out of possession, while United have struggled defensively and invite pressure. They have already dropped points from winning positions on two occasions.
With some very difficult fixtures coming up, a poor run of results could spell the end of Carrick’s tenure. However, such a move is not seen as imminent, given the faith the club showed in their former midfielder in the summer.
That raises the risk of United falling further behind the top four. By the time they make a change in the dugout, they could already be too far back to mount a serious challenge. With so many issues to address, they offer little value in the market for Champions League qualification this season.