A single penalty kick reshaped the Premier League betting landscape, opening the title race and exposing value in the top-four scramble.
| Premier League Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| City to win PL title | 5.00 |
| Liverpool to claim top-four finish | 2.37 |
| Sunderland to win or draw vs Liverpool | 2.05 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
How one high-profile match unlocks season-long value
Haaland’s goal at Anfield changed the course of the Premier League. However, the real story wasn’t the late penalty itself. It was the chaotic moments that led to it and the deep stoppage-time drama that followed.
Under Pep Guardiola, Manchester City secured their first Anfield win in five years through a spot-kick rather than sustained tactical dominance. Conversely, Liverpool lost due to Alisson’s reckless lounge, not a systemic failure.
This season, the direct line between tactical planning and match outcome seems to be more unpredictable than ever. The match at Anfield confirmed that games have become chaotic contests of individual duels and rapid decisions, where the concept of total control is often lost.
For City, the victory was not the result of a fluent performance, but it crucially confirmed their psychological strength as champions. Now only six points behind Arsenal, they show no signs of slowing down in their pursuit of a first-place finish.
Conversely, the defeat was a significant setback to Liverpool’s European qualification hopes. It left them just outside the top six. However, it does not entirely diminish their chances of securing Champions League football.
In such a situation, the betting market risks judging Liverpool’s defeat at face value during a poor streak. It sees City as simply struggling to catch up with Mikel Arteta’s men.
However, deeper analysis reveals something else. City possess unmatched experience in title races, Arsenal still face a difficult trip to the Etihad, and Liverpool remain highly unpredictable.
The most effective strategy is to look past the immediate chaos and make decisions based on overall team quality and the broader context, which usually determines the final outcome.
Capitalising on the chaos
Arsenal are six points clear and are the favourites ahead of Matchday 26. However, City have successfully navigated these situations repeatedly and go into the competition with confidence following their recent result.
As recently as the 2022/23 season, the Gunners led the PL table for 248 days – a record for a team that failed to win the title. City ultimately overtook them to secure their ninth top-flight title.
Critically, Arsenal are yet to visit the Etihad this term, with the fixture scheduled for Matchday 33. City are undefeated in their last 10 home games across all competitions. A home victory in that fixture would immediately split the points gap in half.
The weight of expectation has shifted to North London. With the league's best goals-per-game average, the serial champions are primed for another chase. At current odds, City represent outstanding value.
Meanwhile, Liverpool’s second season under Arne Slot has not met expectations. They currently occupy sixth place with 39 points. They are currently in sixth place with 39 points, although their expected points (xPTS) total of 41 suggests they should be closer to the top four.
Slot’s side have clearly underperformed. Yet, with 13 games remaining and significant squad depth, a recovery is possible.
The teams currently above them, such as Aston Villa, Manchester United, and Chelsea, have also had inconsistent seasons. This suggests that their current positions may be difficult to maintain over the long term.
This weekend, Liverpool face a major challenge as they travel to play in Sunderland. The Black Cats are the league’s last remaining unbeaten home team. City, Arsenal, and Aston Villa have all been held to draws at the Stadium of Light.
The Reds land in the north east of England, not just demoralised but structurally vulnerable. Dominik Szoboszlai’s suspension adds to a growing injury list that includes key defensive players like Conor Bradley and Jeremie Frimpong.
On home turf, Regis Le Bris’ side are disciplined, organised, and incredibly difficult to beat. At the same time, Liverpool’s away form is concerning, as they’ve won only four out of 12 league trips.
Furthermore, Liverpool have failed to win any of their last four matches against promoted sides. Backing Sunderland on the double chance, which offers returns if they win or draw, is a logical play in this context.