Seven of last week’s nine Ligue 1 matches saw more than 2.5 goals. All seven also landed in the BTTS-Yes market. We’re backing a repeat this weekend.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| PSG vs Monaco | BTTS & Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 |
| Lyon vs Auxerre | BTTS - Yes | 2.06 |
| Le Havre vs Brest | BTTS - Yes | 2.24 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
More goals expected in Ligue 1
Matchday 2 in Ligue 1 was a highly productive one. 30 goals were scored across nine fixtures at an average of 3.33 goals per match. Seven of the nine games finished with a minimum of three goals scored. Seven of the nine matches (78%) saw both teams find the back of the net in the same game.
That doesn’t automatically guarantee that the French league will light up again this week. However, few selections in Ligue 1 are primed to follow last weekend’s recipe. We’ll delve deeper into three games that suggest backing the BTTS-Yes or the BTTS & Over 2.5 goals markets.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco - PSG wobble could continue
PSG against Monaco is the standout goals angle of the round because Paris have been open in the early stages of the season. After drawing both matches 2-2, the champions are still waiting for their first league win. Luis Enrique’s men took 18 shots against Lille last weekend, double their opponent’s tally, and racked up an xG (expected goals) of 1.44.
It was a similar story in their opening game. PSG registered 19 shots and an xG of 2.17, more than twice Rennes’ totals in both metrics. The European champions are turning out at home for the first time in Ligue 1 this term, but their early-season issues could leave the door open for Monaco. The visitors have taken six points from their two matches, and they have yet to concede a goal.
Monaco had an xG of 1.72 last time out against Marseille. Still, they surrendered 13 shots to their opponents, two fewer than they took. It’s also worth pointing out that two of Monaco’s three goals this term have come from set pieces. That gives them another route to exploit PSG’s defence at the Parc des Princes.
The head-to-head data is impossible to ignore; each of the last three meetings produced a minimum of four goals. Also, both teams got onto the scoresheet in four of the last five head-to-heads. Paris Brunner for Monaco should be the danger man for the visitors, as he’s scored in four of four competitive matches this term.
PSG might need a change of tactics. Vitinha and Marquinhos rank the highest in the division for long balls per 90 with 15.8 and 15.5, respectively.
However, the addition of Ferran Torres to an already fierce front line should ensure the hosts get among the goals. They haven’t yet found their rhythm, but this has been a PSG trend for the past couple of seasons.
Lyon vs Auxerre - Weaknesses in visiting defence
Lyon against Auxerre looks like the cleanest BTTS play of the three. Auxerre are bottom of Ligue 1 without a point. However, they have still found the net in both of their league matches.
Auxerre have a better xG than their hosts, with 3.66 compared to 2.45. However, their disciplinary record could prove costly, as they average 18.5 fouls per 90 minutes, the most in the league. Interestingly, Auxerre have already conceded two penalties, the joint-most in the division.
At the other end, Remy Labeau Lascary scored the equaliser last time out, and he could make his full debut at Lyon.
Lyon's attacking numbers are decent rather than overwhelming, with three goals in their two games from an xG of 2.45. What will encourage the hosts is their opposition’s xGA (expected goals against) of 5.92 across two games, the highest across the land.
Additionally, seven of the last eight head-to-heads produced goals for both teams. The goal count also hasn’t remained low, as nine of the previous 10 meetings between the clubs exceeded the 2.5-goal line.
Le Havre vs Brest - Bucking the trend
Brest’s two opening fixtures of the new Ligue 1 campaign have been an exciting watch for the neutrals. Both matches ended 2-2, away to newly promoted Le Mans and at home to Toulouse. The visitors’ xG of 5.76 is second only to Lens, although they have scored just four goals from those chances.
They don’t have an overly dominant profile, but it is enough to suggest they can contribute if Brest keep games open. Julien Lachuer is the new man in charge at Brest, and he has created a decent attacking unit.
Brest rank third in Ligue 1 for big chances created with 11 and second for shots on target, averaging seven per game.
The home side are still without a win this term, having drawn one and lost one. Le Havre’s xGA this season is 3.34, which suggests the away side are likely to breach their defence. Last season's home and away records offer some support for this fixture.
Le Havre scored 20 and conceded 18 in 17 home league matches, while Brest scored 15 and conceded 32 in 17 away games. Brest's away defending in particular leaves room for a Le Havre goal, even if the recent meetings have been tighter and more one-sided.
Lyon vs Auxerre is the strongest BTTS selection because Auxerre have paired real attacking output with eight goals conceded already.
PSG vs Monaco offers the strongest goals case of the three, with recent meetings between the sides repeatedly clearing this line.
Le Havre vs Brest is the most volatile of the three, but it is still worth considering. The visitors’ early shot volume matters more than the fixture's low-scoring recent history.