Burnley have a very tough start to the 25/26 season, while Leeds’ PSR situation remains tight. Sunderland are spending big but still lack depth.
| Premier League Relegation Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Number of Promoted Teams Relegated (3) | 4.33 |
| Number of Promoted Teams Relegated (2) | 1.91 |
| Top Newcomer (Leeds) | 1.80 |
| Bottom at Christmas (Burnley) | 3.75 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The relegation challenge for newcomers Leeds, Burnley, and Sunderland
Concerns have increased over the past two years about the growing divide between the Premier League and the Championship.
All three newly promoted Premier League teams have suffered instant returns to the second tier in 2023/24 and 2024/25. This is the first time that’s happened in the history of the Premier League.
Many assume that it’s a sign of the financial times. As more Premier League teams in the bottom half become established in the division, their revenues now far exceed those of the newly promoted outfits.
The betting markets are currently divided on whether all three newly promoted teams will be relegated in 2025/26. Most bookmakers currently give each newly promoted side more than a 50% probability of relegation. However, some suggest that there’s only a 23.10% chance that Sunderland, Burnley, and Leeds return to the Championship.
However, 23.10% is much lower than it should be and is worth backing, considering the amount of work that all three teams need to do in the transfer market this summer.
Sunderland have already spent a majority of £60m on players such as Habib Diarra, Enzo Le Fee, and Noah Sadiki. However, Le Fee was part of the Black Cats’ squad last season, and Diarra is merely a replacement for Jobe Bellingham, who departed for Borussia Dortmund.
Leeds have spent less than £30m so far this summer, with Daniel Farke keeping his powder dry. United are reportedly being scrutinized under Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), which could limit their potential investments.
As evident with Ipswich last season, even investing £120m isn’t enough to secure a Championship squad that consists of players who are ready to play in the Premier League.
Burnley have committed around £60m to transfers so far, with most of that amount covering obligations on loan signings from last season. They’ve been savvy in recruiting Kyle Walker and Axel Tuanzebe, as they have Premier League experience. However, there’s still plenty of work to do in the final third.
The other issue for Sunderland, Leeds, and Burnley is the strength of the established Premier League teams. Only Wolves and Brentford appear remotely vulnerable to being pulled into a relegation battle.
Wolves’ Chinese owners are still on a mission to put the Gold and Blacks on a sustainable financial footing. Meanwhile, Brentford have lost key players from the centre of their team, as well as their long-serving head coach, Thomas Frank. Much depends on rookie replacement Keith Andrews’ performance as Frank’s successor.
The Clarets face a tough fixture schedule
According to the Premier League’s Fixture Difficulty Ratings for the start of the 2025/26 season, Burnley have the toughest set of opening 10 fixtures in the division.
The Fixture Difficulty Ratings, devised by the Premier League’s experts in the realm of Fantasy Premier League (FPL), use a complex algorithm to determine which teams have the hardest and easiest starts to the season.
It’s clear why the Clarets could struggle in their opening ten fixtures. They play Thomas Frank’s Tottenham on the opening day, followed by Sunderland. After that, they face Manchester United away, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest at home, followed by Manchester away matches against City and Aston Villa.
Burnley will host Leeds in October, before playing a challenging away fixture against Wolves and a home match against title contenders Arsenal. Scott Parker’s men could possibly have only five or six points on the board by 1st November.
Also, they are set to play against Chelsea, Newcastle, and Bournemouth in their run-in to the Christmas period.
Some bookmakers only give Burnley a 26.67% chance of being bottom of the Premier League on 25th December. Based on their first 10-15 matches, they are prime candidates to be at the foot of the table unless they sign more good players in the transfer window.