Midweek matchweeks 21 & 26 yielded 2.9 and 2.4 goals per game on average. After 3.6 goals per game in Matchweek 28, we expect more of the same.
| EPL Matchweek 29 betting markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford (Both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals) | 1.83 |
| Aston Villa vs Chelsea (Both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals) | 1.90 |
| Newcastle vs Manchester United (Over 3.5 goals) | 2.30 |
| Fulham vs West Ham United (Both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals) | 2.00 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Why Premier League matches see more goals
Last season, midweek action in the second half of the 24/25 Premier League season led to plenty of goals.
In Matchweek 27, there were 27 goals scored at an average of 2.7 goals per game. Five of the ten games saw three or more goals, with two resulting in five or more goals.
Matchweek 21 was even more prolific, with 30 goals scored at an average of 3.0 goals per game. Six of the ten matches featured three or more goals, with four yielding four or five goals. Both Teams to Score landed in 60% of games. Matches involving struggling Leicester, Ipswich and Wolves were the only ones not to feature goals for either side.
This season, Matchweek 21 almost mirrored last season, with 2.9 goals per game on average. After an unexpectedly high-scoring Matchweek 28, midweek fixtures are expected to push toward that 3.0 goals-per-game average again.
There’s so much on the line for many teams. Champions League qualification and Premier League survival are still in the balance. Squad rotation and tired minds also start to play their part at this stage of the campaign.
Our picks for high-scoring midweek games in EPL Matchweek 29
AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford is the most obvious pick for Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score markets. Neither side is likely to sit back. The Cherries haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last six home matches. Brentford have won their last three on the road, scoring two or more goals in their last two away games.
They need the points to keep pace with west London rivals Chelsea, while Bournemouth also harbour an outside chance of Europa League qualification. Both Teams to Score (Yes) has won in 64% of Bournemouth’s home games. Meanwhile, the same bet has won 50% of the time when Brentford play away.
Wednesday’s intriguing match-up between Aston Villa and Chelsea also has the makings of a goal-fest. Both sides suffered painful defeats at the weekend and will be desperate to get back on track.
The Blues have scored in each of their last 13 games, with 26 goals scored away from Stamford Bridge. Villa have also scored in 71% of their home games. Only two of Villa’s home games have ended in stalemates, so we expect another decisive result.
Newcastle’s home game with Manchester United also has the makings of a basketball-style contest. Each side thrives on fast transitions, so their styles of play could make for a thrilling match.
56% of their last 36 competitive meetings have featured three or more goals. Both Teams to Score (Yes) has landed in 71% of the Magpies’ home games and 86% of the Red Devils’ away fixtures.
Newcastle’s home xG stands at 1.72, while United’s away xG is 1.58. This suggests three or more goals would be an average outcome on Wednesday night.
43% of the Magpies’ home games and United’s away games have led to four or more goals. That’s why we’re happy to take the Over 3.5 Goals line.
Last but by no means least, we have a London derby at Craven Cottage on Wednesday evening. Relegation-haunted West Ham travel to Fulham aiming to bounce back from their thrashing at Liverpool. The Hammers shipped five goals at Anfield and are still in serious danger of the drop.
Fulham’s win over Tottenham at the weekend has effectively secured the Cottagers’ EPL status for another season. Marco Silva’s men can now play the remainder of the campaign with freedom.
Silva’s side average 1.71 goals scored at home, while West Ham average 1.93 goals conceded on the road. Both Teams to Score (Yes) has landed in 64% of games at home and away for Fulham. A point is unlikely to be sufficient for the Hammers in their plight for survival, so goals seem likely here.