Our betting expert suggests that Dortmund may emerge victorious by a narrow margin after a tough match.
Best bets for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Borussia Dortmund
- BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.99 on Stake
- Second half to be Dortmund’s highest scoring at odds of 2.24 on Stake
- Anytime goalscorer - Lucas Ribeiro Costa at odds of 4.90 on Stake
We expect a 2-1 win for Borussia Dortmund.
Our analysis: Form of both teams
Not many gave Mamelodi Sundowns a chance to win a game at this year’s Club World Cup, especially across South Africa. However, the Premier Soccer League champions have disregarded the noises at home, winning 1-0 against Ulsan and securing their first win at the CWC on Wednesday.
Surprisingly, the Brazilians now top Group F after Fluminense and Borussia Dortmund's goalless draw. A win on Saturday evening against BVB will be enough to advance to the knockout phase of the competition.
However, that’s easier said than done. Dortmund’s lacklustre performance in their opening game has proved that they’re way off the pace. Niko Kovac has likely said a few strong words to his team after Tuesday night and hopefully lit a fire under them.
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With a point to their name, the favourites to win the group can still fulfill that prediction. However, they must win against the South Africans. It might prove tough as Sundowns may have gained confidence from their first win and watching Dortmund struggle.
BVB will likely discover their best form when they walk out at the TQL Stadium in Cincinnati on Saturday.
Probable lineups for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Borussia Dortmund
Mamelodi Sundowns expected lineup: Williams; Mudau, Kekana, Cupido, Lunga; Allende Bravo, Mokoena; Ribeiro, Arthur Sales, Zwane; Rayners
Borussia Dortmund expected lineup: Kobel; Sule, Anton, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Sabitzer, Gross, Svensson; Brandt, Adeyemi, Guirassey
Penetrable defences
Mamelodi Sundowns are likely pleased with their attacking performance against Ulsan in their opening game. They have finished the game with an xG of 1.29 from their total of 14 shots. Iqraam Rayners would have had a hat-trick but saw his two strikes ruled out.
This shows that Miguel Cardoso’s men are eager to give it their all at the Club World Cup, which is what fans back home are crying out for. There’s no doubt that Kabo Yellow will try to push Dortmund to the limit on Saturday, especially since Fluminense did so.
Dortmund are simply not in the same form that they were in when they reached the 2024 UEFA Champions League final, which in turn booked their ticket to this competition. They had an xG of just 0.24 against the Brazilian outfit on Tuesday.
However, after examining their Bundesliga stats, both teams have scored in 68% of their matches, and that percentage increased to 71% when they played away.
In Sundowns' two games leading up to their Club World Cup opener, both teams have managed to score. Therefore, this is expected to be the case again on Saturday.
Explore BTTS and other goal-related markets on online betting sites, where you can compare odds from multiple bookmakers for this statistically goal-friendly fixture.
- Mamelodi Sundowns vs Borussia Dortmund Betting Tip 1: BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.99 on Stake
Strong second-half surge
Given their opening match, if the Germans find the net on Saturday, they will most likely do so in the second period. BVB failed to test the keeper in the first half but managed three shots on target in the second stanza.
Five of their final seven Bundesliga fixtures saw Kovac’s troops score after the restart. In addition, Sundowns have proven to be tough to score against in the opening 45 minutes.
Masandawana have kept a clean sheet in the first half across four of their last five outings. Having that and Dortmund's weak first-half performance on Tuesday in mind, the favourites could come on strong in the second half.
- Mamelodi Sundowns vs Borussia Dortmund Betting Tip 2: Second half to be Dortmund’s highest scoring at odds of 2.24 on Stake
Primed to strike
Despite being the favourite to score against Ulsan, Lucas Ribeiro failed to find the back of the net. However, he’s still in form as he supplied the important through-ball for Rayners to land the winning goal.
The Brazilian was named man-of-the-match thanks to that assist and his 67% dribble success rate. Ribeiro had the most touches in Ulsna’s penalty area with five and also took two shots.
It’s worth noting that the PSL’s top scorer has netted three goals in his last four appearances for the club. He is capable of creating chances unexpectedly and is our likely candidate to trouble Gregor Kobel in the Dortmund goalmouth.
- Mamelodi Sundowns vs Borussia Dortmund Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Lucas Ribeiro Costa at odds of 4.90 on Stake