After a long summer campaign at the Club World Cup, a jaded Real Madrid could be caught cold by Osasuna on the opening day.
| Matchday One selected fixtures | Odds |
|---|---|
| Osasuna to beat Real Madrid | 12.00 |
| Real Betis to beat Elche | 2.05 |
| Villarreal to beat Real Oviedo | 1.36 |
| Alaves to beat Levante | 1.95 |
| Rayo Vallecano to beat Girona | 3.25 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Unpredictable start to the La Liga season
Forecasting results on Matchday 1 won’t be easy. The transfer window is still firmly open, and ongoing squad changes make early predictions difficult. Still, early market moves could offer value for bettors.
La Liga welcomes three new sides into the division this term, with Real Oviedo, Levante and Elche all joining the elite. They hope to outperform last year’s promoted trio, two of whom went straight back down.
It’s a tough introduction for all three. Oviedo and Levante both start their campaigns with away games. Elche do have a home game, but starting their campaign against 24/25 Conference League finalists, Real Betis, is a far from ideal opening game.
At the other end of the table, Barcelona aim to retain their La Liga crown, while El Clasico rivals Real Madrid are bidding to snatch it back. Madrid are under the new leadership now, with Xabi Alonso taking the reins. After a gruelling Club World Cup schedule over the summer, few know what to expect from them.
On paper, both title frontrunners have favourable openers. Madrid host Osasuna, while Barcelona travel to face Mallorca, neither of whom finished inside the European places last season.
Backing against Madrid could provide incredible value
After competing at the Club World Cup in America over the summer, Madrid haven’t really had what could be called a proper break. While some players who weren’t on international duty enjoyed a couple of weeks off after the season, most of Real’s squad were away with their national teams.
If they make it to the Club World Cup final - just about a month before La Liga kicks off - their preparation time for the new season could be as short as two weeks. That’s far from ideal, particularly as they’re still adapting to life under a new manager.
With so much transpiring against them on the opening day, backing a shock Osasuna win could be a huge source of value. They’re likely to be priced generously all the way up to kick-off, so monitoring Madrid’s summer situation closely could be the smartest approach to take.
Similarly, backing against the newly-promoted sides could be a smart approach for bettors to take. Only one of the three promoted sides won on the opening weekend last season - Real Valladolid, who faced fellow newcomers, Espanyol!
In the three seasons before that, no newly-promoted sides had won their opening fixture, so there is a long-standing history of these sides struggling on the opening day. With all three facing tricky first games, there seems to be value in backing against Oviedo, Levante and Elche.
Another interesting pick is Rayo Vallecano, who face Girona away on the opening weekend. Rayo are listed at similarly staggering four-figure odds as the three newly-promoted teams to win the title. However, an opening day victory is much more attainable.
They ended the campaign in fine fashion, clinching a top-eight spot and securing a Conference League spot. Owing to playing in the qualifiers for that competition, they’ll have gained experience ahead of Girona and should be prepared sooner. That makes them an attractive prospect for the opening weekend, and at long odds, they shouldn’t be overlooked.