Italy vs Belgium Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Italy vs Belgium
- Both Teams To Score - Yes, with odds of @ 1.75 on 1xBet, equating to a 57% chance of both teams scoring.
- Mateo Retegui to score with odds of @2.80 on 1xBet, indicating a 36% chance of the Italian forward finding the back of the net.
- Italy or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals with odds of @1.72 on 1xBet, representing a 58% chance for Italy to not lose the game and no more than three goals to be scored.
Italy and Belgium should be expected to draw 1-1.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
This Thursday, the iconic Stadio Olimpico in Rome will serve as the backdrop for a crucial UEFA Nations League A encounter between Italy and Belgium.
As these two top-10 FIFA-ranked teams gear up for their third group-stage match, a lot is at stake for both sides.
The Azzurri enter this fixture riding on a wave of confidence. Positioned at the top of their group with six points from two emphatic victories, Italy have started their Nations League campaign in style.
The Belgian squad, under the management of Domenico Tedesco, is in a phase of transition after their Round of 16 elimination at Euro 2024. This has resulted in a mix of promising performances and setbacks, as evidenced by their recent 0-2 defeat to a better organised French side.
Probable Lineups for Italy vs Belgium
The probable lineup for Italy in the "system of play."
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Tonali, Ricci, Dimarco; Raspadori, Retegui.
The probable lineup for Belgium in the "system of play."
Casteels; Castagne, Faes, Debast, Theate; Tielemans, Onana; Lukebakio, De Ketelaere, Doku; Openda.
Riding High on Momentum
Success over France and Israel has not only showcased Italy's footballing talent, but also reignited the nation's dream of capturing a UEFA Nations League title — a feat they have yet to achieve despite playing in the competition's last two final-four phases.
Under the guidance of Luciano Spalletti, Italy are morphing into a strong side characterised by a blend of youthful energy and experienced heads.
With a finely-balanced squad, Italy's strength lies in their defensive solidity, having conceded only two goals in the competition thus far, coupled with an efficient attack that has already registered five goals.
The Azzurri, who are unbeaten in the last five home games, will be banking on the advantage of playing in Rome and a well-drilled tactical setup as they face a Belgian side looking to bounce back from a mixed run of form. Tedesco’s men have only beaten Montenegro, Luxembourg, Romania and Israel in their last 10 games and kept only five clean sheets.
- Italy vs Belgium Bet 1: Both Teams To Score - Yes @ 1.75 with 1xBet
Atalanta’s talent to deliver again
Much of Italy's attacking hopes will rest on the shoulders of Mateo Retegui.
The Italian-Argentinian forward has been in scintillating form for his club, Atalanta, recently netting a hat-trick to underline his burgeoning status as a top striker.
Boasting four goals in 14 appearances for the national team, Retegui is eager to increase his tally and has proven that he can be the focal point of Spalletti’s attacking philosophy.
Italy’s tactical sharpness under Spalletti's meticulous guidance has honed their ability to manage games proficiently. This will be crucial against a Belgian side traditionally known for their attacking prowess.
Playing in front of a passionate home crowd at the Stadio Olimpico might provide that extra edge in a contest likely to be tightly contested and competitive.
- Italy vs Belgium Bet 2: Mateo Retegui to score @ 2.80 with 1xBet
Can Belgium cope without two key players?
Spalletti is likely to field a 3-5-2 formation, leveraging Italy’s well-balanced midfield and the sharp attacking instincts of Retegui and Giacomo Raspadori. The absence of Nicolo Barella due to injury is a setback, but the versatile Samuele Ricci is set to step into the midfield dynamo role.
In contrast, Tedesco will have to navigate his side around the notable absences of Kevin De Bruyne (40 goals and 49 assists with Belgium) and Romelu Lukaku (the all-time top goalscorer with 85 goals).
However, Tedesco will rely on emerging players such as Charles De Ketelaere (one goal and one assist so far with Atalanta) and Loïs Openda (four Bundesliga goals and one assist) to fill the creative void.
For the visitors, finding the right balance between their attacking creativity and defensive solidity will be crucial.
As they travel to Rome, the Belgians will be mindful that a win would significantly enhance their standing in the group and keep them within striking distance of progression.
The rivalry between these two sides has seen the Azzurri in a dominant position historically. Out of 24 encounters, Italy boast 16 wins to Belgium’s 4, with 4 matches ending in stalemates.
More recently, Italy have won four of the last five meetings, which is another reason why they’re considered favourites.
- Italy vs Belgium Bet 3: Italy or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.72 with 1xBet