How to Bet on European Finals Ahead of the Three Big Matches

We explain why extra time could be needed in the Champions League and Europa League finals and why this year’s UECL final could buck recent trends.

Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Betting Trends to Watch for the Champions League Final

With Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) chasing their first Champions League trophy in the club’s history and Inter seeking their second Champions League triumph in 60 years, there’s a lot of neutral interest in this season’s final.

If you’re considering betting on the match, there are several angles to consider based on the historical trends of the Champions League’s modern era.

In the last six successive UCL finals, the matches have ended with two or fewer goals scored. In fact, Both Teams to Score (No) has prevailed in all six games.

No side has scored more than one first-half goal in a Champions League final since the 2017 final between Real Madrid and Juventus. With the pressure weighing heavily on players in the opening stages, backing the second half to feature more goals could be a strategic play.

Extra time and penalties are common too. Four of the last ten UCL finals have gone into extra time, and three of the last 19 finals have been decided by a penalty shootout.

If you can find odds where the probability of a draw after 90 minutes is below 40%, this could also be a value play.

Europa League Final Betting Angles

The 2024/25 Europa League final has attracted more interest than usual since it involves two Premier League sides. Despite their dreadful respective league campaigns, Manchester United and Tottenham have a chance to win a trophy in Bilbao and secure a place in next season’s Champions League.

Since the Europa League replaced the UEFA Cup in 2009, there have been three same-nation finals. On the whole, these have been largely one-sided contests. 

Atletico Madrid brushed aside Bilbao 3-0 in 2012, while Chelsea romped to a 4-1 win over London rivals Arsenal in 2019. The 2011 final between Portuguese rivals Porto and Braga was a more tactical affair, decided by a single goal.

There also appears to be a growing trend for Europa League finals entering extra time and penalties. Five of the last ten finals have gone to extra time, and the last three successive finals were settled by penalty shootouts. 

The statistics also show the number of goals in the UEL finals is drying up. While 70% of finals featured three or more goals between 2009-2018, 80% have ended with under 2.5 goals.

What’s the Best Approach for Betting on the Conference League Final?

The third-tier of European club competition is relatively new, having started in 2021/22. However, there are some interesting early trends to consider for betting on this season’s UECL final between Real Betis and Chelsea.

Firstly, all three previous Conference League finals have ended goalless at half-time. This is not surprising, considering the involvement of Italian and Greek sides known for their structured, defensive-minded systems. 

However, this season’s finalists have been two of the most entertaining teams in the UECL. 65% of their games have finished with three or more goals scored, surpassing the competition average of 53%. Almost three-quarters (70%) of their games have seen both teams score too, which is well above the competition average of 47%.

The final in Wroclaw could be an exception, and we might witness a more open, end-to-end contest.

It’s also worth noting that two of the previous Conference League winners had major European club experience. Both Roma and West Ham benefited from experienced head coaches or players with extensive knowledge of European or international football. 

This could work in Chelsea’s favour since they already have six European club titles to Real Betis’ zero.