Last season, 11 teams finished the season, having secured more points at home than away. However, home advantage has proven to be key this season.
| Backing the home side | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brighton to beat Brentford | 1.90 |
| Fulham to beat Sunderland | 2.05 |
| Everton to beat Newcastle | 2.87 |
| Crystal Palace to beat Man United | 2.50 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Backing home advantage
Over the course of the 2025/26 season, only Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have averaged more points away than at home. Spurs are comfortably the best team on the road and are yet to be defeated.
Meanwhile, the Blues have dropped points just twice. Arsenal have a strong away form as well and are second to Tottenham in terms of points per game. However, their home average is still better.
There are four teams that have failed to secure an away victory at all this season ahead of Matchday 12. Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Fulham, and Wolverhampton Wanderers are all still awaiting a win on the road. There are also another nine who’ve managed just one from their five or six attempts.
Meanwhile, Wolves remain the only club without a home victory, and - interestingly - Spurs stand alone with just one. The disparity will not be lost on Thomas Frank, and it’s something that he’ll be eager to correct. So far, there have been 58 away defeats in the Premier League, and just 28 at home.
10 different teams have an average of two points per game on home soil, while only three maintain that average when playing away. So, when it comes to backing the away team, only Spurs, Arsenal, and Chelsea are at value. For all other fixtures, consider the home side.
Games to target in the next few weeks
Manchester City lead the way in terms of the top-performing sides at home, with 15 points from six games. However, at 2.60, Arsenal and Bournemouth have the best average return, even though they played one fewer game. So, they’re definitely worth backing as hosts.
Additionally, Sunderland, Liverpool, Brighton, and Crystal Palace are also unbeaten at home. Plenty of others, meanwhile, have only been beaten once on home soil. So, there is value to be found when comparing home records to away ones.
Brighton at home to Brentford is one, as the Bees have lost four of their five away games. Meanwhile, Fulham will back themselves against the Black Cats, having lost just once at home all season. Elsewhere, Newcastle’s torrid time away from St. James’ Park will give Everton hope of a victory when they face off.
Lastly, Palace will host Manchester United at Selhurst Park in their next match. Oliver Glasner’s side aren’t the best performing side at home, as they’ve drawn more than he would have preferred, but they’re yet to be beaten. United, meanwhile, have only secured one away win despite their recent resurgence.
Given how the teams have been performing this season, it may be smart to avoid backing away teams.