Three reasons Nottingham Forest could slip to a bottom-half finish

Forest have earned their spot in Europe after a fantastic season, initially for the Conference League. However, they face a tougher challenge now.

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Nottingham Forest in Europe

The Garibaldis have performed very well last season, as they played better than expected for a long time. Even though they finished lower than seventh place, it still showed they had a strong season. Most will agree that they overperformed on many different levels.

However, will they be able to keep it up? They’ve already lost a key player, Anthony Elanga. On top of that, he’s unlikely to be the last crucial player to leave. They’ve now been moved up to the UEL because of Palace’s situation, and this could be a disadvantage for them.

The transfer window isn’t over yet, which is probably a good and a bad thing for Forest. It means they’ve got time to strengthen, but there’s also time for them to lose more players. Espirito Santo will need to manage his team carefully next season. The question is whether he has the squad to handle it.

We’ll examine some of the things that might make the next year difficult for the Tricky Trees. Several factors could cause problems for the Reds from Nottinghamshire.

The Tricky Trees Overachieved

Not only did Forest overachieve last season in terms of what was expected of them, but they also performed better than their games often suggested. Moreover, they were big xG overperformers throughout the campaign.

They had an xG of 1.42 per match throughout their 38 games, the 14th-lowest in the league, but scored 1.53. Also, they conceded 1.58, which is fewer than their xGA suggested. That also played in their favour. It would be great for them to keep that up, but is it a sustainable way to progress?

Then there’s the schedule. Last season, most players played a maximum of 43 games, mainly in the Premier League, with some cup matches. That could change drastically in the next season, with at least eight more matches added to their plate.

This also means more travel, the Thursday/Sunday weeks, and the fatigue that comes with it. Forest have some excellent players, but they may not yet be ready to compete in many different competitions. Palace would’ve had the same problem if they had not lost their spot.

One more concern remains. Who will still be in a Forest shirt by the time the transfer window closes? Elanga is gone, and another key player, Morgan Gibbs-White, has been linked away. They should be able to reinvest a significant amount of money into finding replacements. However, will they be as good?

Jair Cunha and Igor Jesus are interesting signings, but only time will tell whether they’ll help take things to the next level. With more games, less luck at both ends of the pitch, and a weakened squad, a difficult season may be ahead. However, is a return to European football worth a mid-table finish? Forest fans probably think so.