Despite finishing 3rd in the League Phase, Danish side Midtjylland are priced as huge outsiders in their last-16 tie with EPL side Nottingham Forest.
| UEL last-16 1st leg match odds markets | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille vs Aston Villa | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.37 |
| Nottingham Forest vs Midtjylland | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| Celta Vigo vs Lyon | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Bologna vs Roma | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Overwhelming favourites Villa paired with French side Lille
Unai Emery has mastered the Europa League, having lifted the trophy on four separate occasions. The Spaniard achieved this three times with Sevilla and once with Villarreal. As the most successful manager in the history of the tournament, he leads Aston Villa into the last 16 this year.
Emery's impressive track record in this competition is a primary reason why the Villans are the heavy favourites to win the title outright. However, the underlying statistics for Villa do not appear quite as convincing.
They rank 15th in the overall xG table in the Europa League this season, recording an xG of 1.59 per match. Their last-16 opponents are French Ligue 1 outfit Lille OSC, who are eighth in the competition's xG rankings with 1.67.
During the league phase, Lille underperformed their xG, recording 1.40 actual goals against an expected 1.67. This suggests they have room to become more efficient in the final third. Conversely, Villa overperformed their xG, scoring 1.75 compared to an expected 1.59. Any regression toward the mean for either side could result in a significant shock.
There are indications that Villa's domestic form is beginning to fade. They have managed to secure only five points from their previous five EPL fixtures. Having suddenly struggled to create and convert opportunities, it is difficult to support Villa with much certainty before the first leg.
Are Midtjylland the value bet of the Europa League last 16?
Danish minnows Midtjylland may be small in stature, but they’ve displayed real resilience and quality during the League Phase. They ended that stage in third place, which earned them a direct spot in the last 16. Their opponents, Nottingham Forest, had to navigate a difficult two-legged playoff against Fenerbahce to reach this point.
On paper, it is hard to explain why Forest are such heavy favourites to win the opening leg at the City Ground. However, a deeper look into the underlying data clarifies the situation.
Midtjylland recorded the fifth-best xG in the league phase at 1.79, but Forest were slightly superior with 1.86. Midtjylland also significantly overperformed their metrics, scoring 2.29 goals compared to their 1.79 xG. In contrast, Forest closely matched their expectations for both xG (1.90 actual vs 1.79 expected) and xGA (0.90 actual vs 0.87 expected).
Throughout the league phase, Midtjylland’s expected points (xPTS) were only 12.5, whereas they actually earned 19 points. No other team exceeded their xPTS by such a wide margin. Consequently, backing Midtjylland might be a mistake based solely on their high league finish.
League phase-topping Lyon drawn with huge underdogs Celta Vigo
Olympique Lyon finished at the top of the UEL League Phase, earning 21 points from their eight fixtures. The French team netted 18 goals, averaging 2.25 per match. This scoring rate was more than 0.5xG higher than their expected tally of 1.74.
The League Phase proved more difficult for Celta Vigo. They recorded an xG of only 1.33 per match, ranking them 29th out of 50 participating clubs this season.
Lyon were dominant in possession during the league phase, leading the competition with an average of 61.2%. Meanwhile, Celta overperformed their xG by 4.2 goals, the third-highest margin in the tournament. This indicates they relied more on individual moments of quality than on creating consistent chances.
Much of the focus will be on Bryan Zaragoza, who assisted four of Celta’s 15 League Phase goals. If he is unavailable or Lyon successfully mark him out of the game, the Spanish side may find it very hard to progress.
All-Italian tie sees Roma face last season’s Coppa Italia winners Bologna
The fourth and final tie to watch in the last-16 stage is the all-Italian clash involving AS Roma and Bologna. Bologna led the league phase xG table with 2.18 per match, though they underperformed that figure by 0.58 per game.
Bologna were very strong defensively, conceding only 0.70 goals per match against an xGA of 0.92.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s Roma finished 13th in the league phase xG table with 1.63. However, they also overperformed their defensive metrics, conceding just 0.75 goals compared to an xGA of 1.10. This suggests both legs could be low-scoring affairs featuring two very effective defences.
In recent Serie A meetings, the Renato Dall’Ara Stadium has not been a successful venue for Roma. They have failed to win on any of their last four visits to Bologna. Furthermore, Bologna have won two of their previous three trips to the Stadio Olimpico in league play.
While Roma narrowly reached the last 16 by taking the final automatic qualification spot, Bologna could be a major threat. Only a single point separated the teams in the league phase, and they had identical goal differences. Backing under 2.5 goals in both legs could be a wise choice here.