Data Shows Which Sides to Back to Comeback in Champions League Quarters

With a place in the semi-finals at stake, the four sides trailing after the first leg will be eyeing miraculous comebacks

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Aston Villa's Hopes Appear All but Over

Villa’s price would’ve been much shorter had it not been for Nuno Mendes’ stoppage time goal. That strike left Villa feeling deflated, as overturning a one-goal deficit was possible - two is much more difficult.

Hope isn’t all lost just yet though. Villa have won seven of the 12 European ties in which they were beaten in the away first leg. Only once before have they lost a European away knockout first-leg tie away by a two-goal margin. Back then, they came back to beat Zürich in the 2002 UEFA Intertoto Cup third round.

Replicating that against PSG is a completely different proposition. Villa will need to win by three clear goals to win the tie inside regulation time. The last time PSG lost a game by three clear goals was in October 2023 against Newcastle. 

Dortmund Must Achieve the Impossible

After their humiliating first-leg defeat at the hands of Barcelona, Dortmund’s hopes of progressing are virtually over. Trailing 4-0 after the first leg, Dortmund will have to do something only Barcelona have done in history. The Spanish giants are the only side to overturn a 4+ goal first-leg deficit in a knockout Champions League tie. 

Dortmund are priced the most generously of all sides who trail after the first leg. That’s largely down to the fact their deficit is the biggest of all four sides. They’ve lost six of their last eight Champions League quarter-final matches too. The chances of a comeback in this game are slim to none.

The biggest deficit Dortmund have previously overturned in a European knockout tie is two goals. Barcelona themselves have won 38 of the 43 UEFA competition ties in which they won the first leg at home. They did lose the last three such occasions, however. Could that alone be enough to make a bold bettor back Dortmund?

Don’t Count Out Real Madrid Just Yet

The one trailing side all bettors will have an eye on are Real Madrid. They trail 3-0 after the first leg of their tie with Arsenal. Any other side would probably be written off and discarded by now, but Madrid are a different force in this competition and can’t be forgotten that easily.

There have been signs that their impact in this competition is fading this term. The five games they’ve lost in the competition this season equals a club record. They’ve never recovered from a three-goal first-leg deficit to win a Champions League knockout tie either.

Arsenal have won the first leg at home in 20 UEFA competition ties and have prevailed in 18. The fact both failures came against Spanish sides could offer a glimmer of hope to those backing Madrid. Their odds are certainly generous, given their affiliation with this competition.

Bayern Face a Tough Task

Bayern face a different task compared to the other three sides. They’re the only one of the four who need to overturn their deficit on the road. They trail by the narrowest margin of the four, however. The 2-1 loss in the first leg certainly keeps their hopes alive.

Bayern have lost seven home first legs in UEFA competition across history. They only went on to advance in two of those ties. The most recent of those was in 1995/96. Losing only one of their last eight away games against Italian opposition certainly gives them a chance here.

They’ll still need to contend with some tough historical records. Inter have won 19 of the 20 UEFA competition ties in which they have triumphed away from home in the first leg. The only defeat came against Bayern though back in 1988/89. As their odds suggest, they probably have the most realistic chance of all four sides.